如何实现净零排放目标?从过去的转变中吸取的教训

Annina Guthauser, Marco Pütz, I. Seidl, R. Olschewski
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摘要

变革——被定义为深刻的、激进的、非线性的、多维的、系统的变革过程——是避免对人类和环境的严重威胁所必需的。在本研究中,我们分析了瑞士过去在四个环境领域的转型,目的是为当前的挑战(如净零转型)得出结论。首先,我们对转换进行了概念化和定义。其次,我们应用并进一步发展了两个理论框架来(i)确定四个领域的实际转变,(ii)分析这些深刻变化的关键特征。此外,我们还研究了促进和阻碍转变的相关因素。我们的研究是基于文献回顾和专家访谈,以及三角测量研讨会来整理收集到的信息。我们得出结论,由于这些过程的复杂性和特定于上下文的性质,为转换提供通用蓝图是不可能的。然而,我们发现,要使净零转型取得成功,需要在步伐、涉及的部门、主动性水平、更广泛人群的思维转变以及技术和研究的参与方面做出前所未有的努力。具体而言,我们建议采取快速行动:(i)建立一个与公民大会和跨部门讨论平台相结合的指导委员会,(ii)鼓励不同行为者在多个层面采取主动行动,以及(iii)在不同社会群体中实现广泛的思维转变。
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How to achieve the net-zero target? Lessons learned from past transformations
Transformations–defined as deep, radical, non-linear, multi-dimensional, systemic processes of change–are required to avert serious threats to humanity and the environment. In this study, we have analysed past transformations in Switzerland in four environmental domains, with the aim to draw conclusions for current challenges, such as the net-zero transformation. Firstly, we have conceptualised and defined transformations. Secondly, we have applied and further developed two theoretical frameworks to (i) identify actual transformations in the four domains, and (ii) analyse crucial characteristics of these profound changes. Furthermore, we have examined relevant enabling and hindering factors for transformations. Our study is based on literature review and expert interviews, as well as triangulation workshops to align the collected information. We conclude that providing general blueprints for transformations is not possible due to the complexity and context-specific nature of these processes. However, for the net-zero transformation to be successful, we found that unprecedent efforts are needed with respect to pace, sectors involved, levels of initiative, mindset change in the broader population, and involvement of technology and research. Specifically, we recommend fast action to (i) implement a steering committee combined with citizens’ assemblies and cross-sectoral discussion platforms, (ii) encourage different actors to take initiatives at multiple levels, and (iii) enable a broad mindset change across different societal groups.
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