利用混合遗传算法和模糊神经系统实现外部因素对用电量的预测

Gayatri Dwi Santika
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引用次数: 4

摘要

由于电力消费生活方式的巨大变化,对未来负荷的预测非常重要。已经提出了几种算法来解决这个问题。本文介绍了一种新的改进模糊神经系统短期负荷预测方法。采用两相模糊推理系统和遗传算法对权重进行优化,可以提高负荷预测的准确性。外部因素如温度、湿度、价格负荷、国内生产总值和负荷的关系是通过一个特定地区的案例研究确定的。使用的数据是5年的月负荷数据。采用均方根误差(RMSE)对算法的精度进行了验证。结果RMSE为0.78,表明该方法是可行的。
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Enabling external factors for consumption electricity forecasting using hybrid genetic algorithm and fuzzy neural system
Forecasting of the future load is important because of dramatic changes occurring in the electricity consumption lifestyle. Several algorithms have been suggested for solving this problem. This paper introduces a new modified fuzzy neural system approach for short term load forecasting. By using two phase on Fuzzy Inference system and Genetic algorithm for optimization, weight can improve the accuracy of electricity load forecasting. The relationship external factors like temperature, humidity, price load, Gross Domestic Product and load is identified with a case study for a particular region. Data for a monthly load of five years has been used. The accuracy algorithm has been validated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The result RMSE is 0.78 it is shown that our proposed method is feasible.
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