欺骗你自己

Gary Smith, Jay Cordes
{"title":"欺骗你自己","authors":"Gary Smith, Jay Cordes","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780198844396.003.0007","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Clowns fool themselves. Scientists don’t. Often, the easiest way to differentiate a data clown from a data scientist is to track the successes and failures of their predictions. Clowns avoid experimentation out of fear that they’re wrong, or wait until after seeing the data before revealing what they expected to find. Scientists share their theories, question their assumptions, and seek opportunities to run experiments that will verify or contradict themselves. Most new theories are not correct and will not be supported by experiments (randomized controlled trials). Scientists are comfortable with that reality and don’t try to ram a square peg in a round hole by torturing data or mangling theories. They know that science works, but only if it’s done right.","PeriodicalId":331229,"journal":{"name":"The 9 Pitfalls of Data Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Fooling Yourself\",\"authors\":\"Gary Smith, Jay Cordes\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/oso/9780198844396.003.0007\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Clowns fool themselves. Scientists don’t. Often, the easiest way to differentiate a data clown from a data scientist is to track the successes and failures of their predictions. Clowns avoid experimentation out of fear that they’re wrong, or wait until after seeing the data before revealing what they expected to find. Scientists share their theories, question their assumptions, and seek opportunities to run experiments that will verify or contradict themselves. Most new theories are not correct and will not be supported by experiments (randomized controlled trials). Scientists are comfortable with that reality and don’t try to ram a square peg in a round hole by torturing data or mangling theories. They know that science works, but only if it’s done right.\",\"PeriodicalId\":331229,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"The 9 Pitfalls of Data Science\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2019-07-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"The 9 Pitfalls of Data Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198844396.003.0007\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"The 9 Pitfalls of Data Science","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198844396.003.0007","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

小丑愚弄自己。科学家们不喜欢。通常,区分数据小丑和数据科学家的最简单方法是跟踪他们预测的成功和失败。小丑避免实验,因为他们害怕自己是错的,或者等到看到数据后才透露他们期望发现的东西。科学家们分享他们的理论,质疑他们的假设,并寻找机会进行实验,以验证或反驳自己。大多数新理论都是不正确的,也不会得到实验(随机对照试验)的支持。科学家们对这一现实感到满意,不会试图通过折磨数据或破坏理论来解决问题。他们知道科学是有效的,但前提是要做得正确。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Fooling Yourself
Clowns fool themselves. Scientists don’t. Often, the easiest way to differentiate a data clown from a data scientist is to track the successes and failures of their predictions. Clowns avoid experimentation out of fear that they’re wrong, or wait until after seeing the data before revealing what they expected to find. Scientists share their theories, question their assumptions, and seek opportunities to run experiments that will verify or contradict themselves. Most new theories are not correct and will not be supported by experiments (randomized controlled trials). Scientists are comfortable with that reality and don’t try to ram a square peg in a round hole by torturing data or mangling theories. They know that science works, but only if it’s done right.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
期刊最新文献
Using Bad Data Confusing Correlation with Causation Worshiping Computers Case Study Being Surprised by Regression Toward the Mean
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1