金融发展与经济增长:自举面板因果关系分析

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摘要

大量的理论和实证文献都显示了金融发展(或称为金融深度)与经济增长之间的关系。然而,对于中欧和波罗的海国家,现有的经验证据很少。本文以2000-2019年期间11个中欧和波罗的海国家为背景,重新审视了金融发展是否刺激了经济增长。通过将金融机构(如银行和保险公司)和金融市场(包括股票市场、债券市场和衍生品市场)的广泛特征纳入金融-增长关系,本文不仅试图强调金融深度对经济增长的潜在重要性,而且还检验了金融准入、效率和稳定性促进经济增长或反之亦然的假设。本文采用面板自举法进行格兰杰因果检验,该方法考虑了横断面相关性和异质性问题。实证结果表明,供给主导假说和需求跟随假说支持有限。
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MULTIFACETED FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: BOOTSTRAP PANEL CAUSALITY APPROACH
A large body of both theoretical and empirical literature has been conducted to show the relationship between financial development (or called financial depth) and economic growth. However, for Central Europe and Baltic countries, the existing empirical evidence is scarce. This paper revisits whether financial development stimulates economic growth in the context of eleven Central Europe and Baltic countries during the 2000-2019 period. By incorporating broad characteristics of financial institutions (such as banks and insurance companies) and financial markets (including stock markets, bond markets, and derivative markets) into the finance-growth nexus, this paper not only attempts to underline the potential importance of financial depth for economic growth but also tests the hypothesis that financial access, efficiency, and stability promote economic growth or vice versa. This paper applies a panel bootstrap approach to Granger causality testing, which considers cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity issues. Empirical results show limited support for the supply-leading and demand following hypotheses.
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