能源产业发展:主要趋势与核心决定因素

O. Chygryn, K. Shevchenko
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引用次数: 7

摘要

能源是发展的基础,支持投资、创新和新兴产业,推动就业、包容性增长和整个经济体的共同繁荣。2019冠状病毒病大流行和乌克兰战争导致能源价格大幅上涨,加剧了人们对能源短缺和能源安全的担忧,并减缓了到2030年普遍获得负担得起、可靠、可持续和现代能源的进展。本文的目的是研究全球能源部门发展的主要趋势和趋势。回顾性分析采用经济前后分析。通过进行分析,可以找出全球能源部门发展的三个主要趋势:脱碳、数字化和去中心化。对替代能源发展统计资料的评估结果使我们能够得出以下结论。2010年至2018年间,太阳能光伏发电和陆上风电的全球加权平均电力成本分别下降了77%和35%。2018年,全球可再生能源发电量也增长了7%。以中国为首,占海上风电增长的近37%,占太阳能光伏增长的44%。然而,可再生能源利用的重大进展仍然集中在电力工业。可再生能源在运输和供热部门的份额仍然有限,尽管显示出适度的增长。对预测指标的研究证实了对可再生能源需求的稳定增长趋势。2018年至2030年,全球可再生能源需求预计将增长64%。所提供的研究结果可以进一步用于研究能源工业各个部门的发展,特别是替代电力、风能等。
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Energy industry development: key trends and the core determinants
Energy underpins the development and enables investment, innovation, and new industries that drive jobs, inclusive growth, and the shared prosperity of entire economies. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have led to a sharp rise in energy prices, increasing concerns about energy shortages and energy security, and slowing progress toward universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy by 2030. The purpose of the article is to study key trends and trends in the development of the global energy sector. Ex-post-economic analysis was used during the retrospective analysis. The conducted analysis made it possible to single out three main trends in the development of the global energy sector: decarbonization, digitalization, and decentralization. The results of the evaluation of statistical information on the development of alternative energy allowed us to draw the following conclusions. The global weighted average current cost of electricity for solar photovoltaic and onshore wind decreased by 77% and 35%, respectively, between 2010 and 2018. Global electricity production from renewable energy sources also increased by 7% in 2018. led by China, which accounted for nearly 37% of offshore wind growth and 44% of solar PV growth. However, significant progress in the use of renewable energy sources is still concentrated in the power industry. The share of renewable energy sources in the transport and heating sectors is still limited, although showing moderate growth. The study of forecast indicators confirmed the steady trend of growth in the demand for renewable energy. Between 2018 and 2030, global demand for renewable energy is projected to grow by 64%. The results of the provided research can be used further in the study of the development of various sectors of the energy industry, in particular, alternative electricity, wind energy, etc.
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