1936年,凯恩斯的一般、多重宏观均衡方法与马夏里派(哈罗德、霍特里、亨德森、庇古和罗伯逊)的对抗。其他条件相同,部分均衡,宏观方法

M. E. Brady
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引用次数: 0

摘要

凯恩斯的《通论》(1936)代表了他在宏观经济学方法论和正式经济建模方面的反马歇尔主义方法的巅峰。在宏观经济层面上,凯恩斯反对马绍尔学派强调其他条件相同的分析方法,这种分析方法集中于每次只分析一个自变量。然后,马绍尔人会通过散文或文学讨论来补充他们的一个自变量分析,在这些讨论中,其他变量,被认为是固定的,被讨论,但不是以严格的,技术的,数学的方式来分析。这种类型的分析是由Dennis Robertson, Ralph Hawtrey, A C Pigou, Hubert Henderson和Roy Harrod在20世纪30年代早期和中期发表的。这种马绍尔式的、部分均衡的分析方法在罗伯逊、霍特里、亨德森和哈罗德与凯恩斯关于《通论》的通信中得到了展示,这些通信包含在CWJMK的第13、14和29卷中。在凯恩斯看来,这种马绍尔式的方法在庇古1933年的《失业理论》中达到了最高水平。庇古在《失业理论》第二部分中所有的技术分析都是基于这样一种分析,即在他的宏观经济模型中只有一个数学上指定的自变量,而这个模型直接基于底层的微观模型,这两个模型都只有一个变量的函数,即实际工资。庇古补充了他的第二部分的分析,以口头,散文,文学的讨论,试图讨论其他因素,将影响宏观经济。不幸的是,庇古没有乘数函数、消费函数或流动性偏好函数,这些都不能让他准确地分析总产值或就业。霍特里、罗伯逊和亨德森也没有。哈罗德对新古典主义利率理论的马歇尔式辩护,是他在1935年8月至9月与凯恩斯就凯恩斯的新IS-LP(LM)理论进行的交流中提出的,该理论基于一个包含三个联立数学方程的系统,凯恩斯在CWJMK第13卷的《通论》第15章和第21章的第四节中明确指出了这一点。没有任何意义,因为他的移动储蓄和投资函数集只能指定一组向下倾斜的IS曲线。没有一个马歇尔主义者,尤其是罗伯逊,能够理解凯恩斯在《通论》第15章和21章中的IS-LP(LM)模型与凯恩斯在《通论》第167页第13章中使用凯恩斯简化的流动性偏好函数进行的最初的介绍性讨论完全没有关系,在那里,货币的需求和供给单独决定了利率。凯恩斯完整的,同时的,三方程is - lp (LM)模型在通论的298-299页提供。凯恩斯的is - lp (LM)优于Hicks(1937)、Harrod(1937)和Meade(1937)的联立三方程模型,后者没有包含预期和不确定性的D-Z模型支持。罗伯逊和霍特雷都完全忽视了凯恩斯在《通论》第207-208页提供的关于LP(LM)曲线的垂直和水平范围的清晰描述。凯恩斯的理论不是部分均衡,不是马绍尔理论。
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J M Keynes's General, Multiple, Macro Equilibria Approach in 1936 Against the Marshallians (Harrod, Hawtrey, Henderson, Pigou, and Robertson) Ceteris Paribus, Partial Equilibrium, Approach to Macro
J M Keynes’s General Theory (1936) represented the culmination of his anti-Marshallian approach to both economic methodology and formal economic modeling in macroeconomics. Keynes rejected, at the marco economic level, the Marshallians’ emphasis on ceteris paribus analysis that concentrated on using an approach to analysis that relied on analyzing only one independent variable at a time. The Marshallians would then supplemented their one independent variable analysis by a prose or literary discussion, in which other variables, that had been held fixed, were discussed, but not analyzed in a rigorous, technical, mathematical manner. This type of analysis was published by Dennis Robertson, Ralph Hawtrey, A C Pigou, Hubert Henderson, and Roy Harrod in the early and mid 1930’s. This type of Marshallian, partial equilibrium, approach to analysis is on display in the correspondence of Robertson, Hawtrey, Henderson, and Harrod with Keynes over the General Theory as contained in Volumes 13,14, and 29 of the CWJMK. This kind of Marshallian approach reached its highest level, in the opinion of J M Keynes, in Pigou’s 1933 The Theory of Unemployment. All of Pigou’s technical analysis in Part II of The Theory of Unemployment is based on an analysis where only one independent variable is specified mathematically in his macro economic model, which is based directly on the underlying micro model, both of which were functions of only one single variable, the real wage.Pigou supplemented his Part II analysis with a verbal, prose, literary discussion that attempted to discuss other factors that would impact the macro economy. Unfortunately, Pigou had no multiplier function, consumption function, or Liquidity Preference function that would allow him to analyze total output or employment accurately. Neither did Hawtrey, Robertson, or Henderson. Harrod’s Marshallian defense of the neoclassical theory of the rate of interest, made in his August-September, 1935 exchanges with Keynes over Keynes’s new IS-LP(LM) theory, based on a system containing three simultaneous, mathematical equations, which Keynes explicitly specified in sections four of both chapters 15 and 21 of the General Theory, in Volume 13 of the CWJMK, makes no sense because his sets of shifting savings and investment functions can only specify a set of downward sloping IS curves. No Marshallian, especially Robertson, ever grasped that Keynes’s IS-LP(LM) model of chapters 15 and 21 of the General Theory has absolutely nothing to do with Keynes’s initial, introductory discussion using Keynes’s simplified, liquidity preference function in chapter 13 of the General Theory on page 167, where the demand and supply of money alone determined the interest rate. Keynes’s complete, simultaneous, three equation IS-LP(LM) model is provided on pages 298-299 of the General Theory. Keynes’s IS-LP(LM) is superior to the simultaneous three equation models of Hicks (1937), Harrod (1937), and Meade (1937), which have no D-Z model supporting them that incorporates expectations and uncertainty. Both Robertson and Hawtrey completely overlooked Keynes’s clear description of the vertical and horizontal ranges of the LP(LM) curve provided by Keynes on pages 207-208 of the General Theory. Keynes’s theory is not a partial equilibrium, Marshallian theory.
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