信息通信技术服务对塞尔维亚共和国国际收支的重要性

Milan Kalinović, Miloš Todorović, I. Marković
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摘要

国际收支逆差是许多国家共同面临的问题。为了解决国际收支赤字问题,经济政策的制定者试图刺激那些确保最大外汇流入并对减少赤字产生有利影响的部门。信息、计算机和电信服务领域的国际贸易在21世纪取得了惊人的高速增长。信息和通信技术部门的特殊性甚至为欠发达经济体开辟了一个更大程度地参与出口的前景,因为出口在附加值中所占比例很大。本文的目标是确定信息通信技术服务对贸易平衡和经常账户调整的重要性,以及对产生服务总平衡盈余的贡献。就塞尔维亚共和国而言,信通技术部门的盈余几乎占贸易赤字余额的五分之一,几乎占经常帐户赤字的三分之一,而服务出口所获得的每四美元都是信通技术服务出口所获得的。如果ICT行业的增长趋势继续下去,预测表明,到2024年,与2020年的水平相比,该行业的盈余将扩大近60%。最后,信通技术部门本身可能带来的最显著的好处是减少人才流失,这是劳动力流动自由化给欠发达国家带来的最具破坏性的后果。
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The Significance of ICT Services for the Balance of Payments in the Republic of Serbia
Abstract The balance of payments deficit is the problem faced by numerous countries. To solve the problem of the balance of payment deficit, the creators of economic policy try to stimulate the sectors that secure the largest inflow of foreign currencies and have a beneficial impact on the reduction of deficit. The international trade in informational, computer and telecommunication services records enormously high growth rates in the 21st century. The specificity of ICT sector opens a perspective even to less developed economies to take part more significantly in the exports, which hold a large percentage of a value-added. The goal of this paper is to determine the significance of ICT services for the balance of trade and the current account adjustment, as well as the contribution to generating the surplus of the total balance of services. In the case of the Republic of Serbia, the surplus of ICT sector covers almost one-fifth of the balance of trade deficit, almost one-third of the current account deficit, while every fourth dollar achieved by the services’ exports is achieved by the exports of ICT services. If the same trend of ICT sector’s growth continues, the predictions say that the surplus of this sector will be enlarged by almost 60% till the year of 2024, when compared to the level in 2020. Finally, potentially the most significant advantage, which ICT sector brings with itself, is the reduced brain drain, which is the most destructive consequence brought to the less developed countries by the liberalization of workforce’s movement.
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