An Assumptions-Based Framework for TRL-Based Cost and Schedule Models

The Technology Readiness Level scale has been used to assess progress and provide a framework for developing technology. Many Technology Readiness Level-based cost and schedule models have been developed to monitor technology maturation, mitigate program risk, characterize transition times, or model schedule and cost risk for individual technologies as well technology systems and portfolios. We present a four-level classification of models based on the often-implicit assumptions they make. For each level, we clarify the assumptions made, review evidence that supports the assumptions, and propose alternative or improved models. Our results include a justification of the recommendations of the US General Accounting Office on Technology Readiness Level, two new methodologies for robust estimation of median transition times and for forecasting transition times using historical data, and a set of recommendations for Technology Readiness Level-based regression models.