黄河上游春季洪峰对气候因子的依赖

A. Semenova, M. Bukovskiy
{"title":"黄河上游春季洪峰对气候因子的依赖","authors":"A. Semenova, M. Bukovskiy","doi":"10.17072/2079-7877-2022-1-87-99","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The rise of water in rivers when it reaches high and abnormally high levels can lead to catastrophic consequences for the property complex and even pose threat to human life. Generally, in the European part of Russia, such levels are observed during high spring floods, which are characterized by a random frequency and depend on a combination of several factors. Climatic changes necessitate significant adjustments to the previously developed forecasting methods, whose accuracy and justification are reducing sharply. Therefore, the development of relevant forecasting methods for small and medium rivers is an important scientific objective. This paper considers 17 climatic factors potentially influencing the formation of the maximum levels of spring floods. The factors whose influence is most significant were determined by the correlation-regression analysis. The analysis was carried out according to the data of the Kuzmino-Gat gauging station, located at the upper reaches of the Tsna River (the Oka River basin), and the Tambov weather station for the period from 1970 to 2020. We have established that the probability of high floods increases to the greatest extent when the starting dates of snowmelt shift to later ones. The probability of high floods also increases with a rise in snow water reserves, autumn soil moisture, and a later transition of the average daily air temperature through 0ºС upwards. The results of this work are already being introduced into practice for verification and are used to make forecasts of the maximum flood level at the Kuzmino-Gat gauging station.","PeriodicalId":345845,"journal":{"name":"Географический вестник = Geographical bulletin","volume":"148 Pt 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"DEPENDENCE OF THE SPRING FLOOD PEAK IN THE UPSTREAM OF THE TSNA RIVER ON CLIMATIC FACTORS\",\"authors\":\"A. Semenova, M. Bukovskiy\",\"doi\":\"10.17072/2079-7877-2022-1-87-99\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The rise of water in rivers when it reaches high and abnormally high levels can lead to catastrophic consequences for the property complex and even pose threat to human life. Generally, in the European part of Russia, such levels are observed during high spring floods, which are characterized by a random frequency and depend on a combination of several factors. Climatic changes necessitate significant adjustments to the previously developed forecasting methods, whose accuracy and justification are reducing sharply. Therefore, the development of relevant forecasting methods for small and medium rivers is an important scientific objective. This paper considers 17 climatic factors potentially influencing the formation of the maximum levels of spring floods. The factors whose influence is most significant were determined by the correlation-regression analysis. The analysis was carried out according to the data of the Kuzmino-Gat gauging station, located at the upper reaches of the Tsna River (the Oka River basin), and the Tambov weather station for the period from 1970 to 2020. We have established that the probability of high floods increases to the greatest extent when the starting dates of snowmelt shift to later ones. The probability of high floods also increases with a rise in snow water reserves, autumn soil moisture, and a later transition of the average daily air temperature through 0ºС upwards. The results of this work are already being introduced into practice for verification and are used to make forecasts of the maximum flood level at the Kuzmino-Gat gauging station.\",\"PeriodicalId\":345845,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Географический вестник = Geographical bulletin\",\"volume\":\"148 Pt 4 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"1900-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Географический вестник = Geographical bulletin\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.17072/2079-7877-2022-1-87-99\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Географический вестник = Geographical bulletin","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.17072/2079-7877-2022-1-87-99","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

当河流水位达到高或异常高的水平时,可能会给财产综合体带来灾难性的后果,甚至对人类生命构成威胁。一般来说,在俄罗斯的欧洲部分,这种水平是在春季大洪水期间观察到的,其特征是随机频率,并取决于几个因素的组合。气候变化需要对以前开发的预报方法进行重大调整,这些方法的准确性和合理性正在急剧下降。因此,开发相关的中小河流预报方法是一项重要的科学目标。本文考虑了17种可能影响春季洪水最大水位形成的气候因素。通过相关回归分析确定影响最显著的因素。根据位于茨纳河上游(奥卡河流域)的kuzmino - gaat测量站和Tambov气象站1970 - 2020年的数据进行分析。我们已经确定,当融雪开始日期向后移动时,大洪水的概率增加到最大程度。随着雪水储量的增加、秋季土壤湿度的增加以及日平均气温由0ºС向上过渡的后期,大洪水发生的概率也会增加。这项工作的结果已经付诸实践进行核查,并用于预报库兹米诺-盖特测量站的最高洪水水位。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
DEPENDENCE OF THE SPRING FLOOD PEAK IN THE UPSTREAM OF THE TSNA RIVER ON CLIMATIC FACTORS
The rise of water in rivers when it reaches high and abnormally high levels can lead to catastrophic consequences for the property complex and even pose threat to human life. Generally, in the European part of Russia, such levels are observed during high spring floods, which are characterized by a random frequency and depend on a combination of several factors. Climatic changes necessitate significant adjustments to the previously developed forecasting methods, whose accuracy and justification are reducing sharply. Therefore, the development of relevant forecasting methods for small and medium rivers is an important scientific objective. This paper considers 17 climatic factors potentially influencing the formation of the maximum levels of spring floods. The factors whose influence is most significant were determined by the correlation-regression analysis. The analysis was carried out according to the data of the Kuzmino-Gat gauging station, located at the upper reaches of the Tsna River (the Oka River basin), and the Tambov weather station for the period from 1970 to 2020. We have established that the probability of high floods increases to the greatest extent when the starting dates of snowmelt shift to later ones. The probability of high floods also increases with a rise in snow water reserves, autumn soil moisture, and a later transition of the average daily air temperature through 0ºС upwards. The results of this work are already being introduced into practice for verification and are used to make forecasts of the maximum flood level at the Kuzmino-Gat gauging station.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
期刊最新文献
TOURIST ATTRACTIVENESS OF THE PERM REGION’S ROUTES IN THE PERCEPTION OF YOUNG PEOPLE THE APPLICATION OF GEO-INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES TO INCREASE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF LAND SUPERVISION LANDSCAPE AS A LIMIT MODEL OF SETS RIVERBANK EROSION ON THE OB AND THE IRTYSH AND ITS CONNECTION WITH THE RIVER CHANNEL MORPHOLOGY NEW DATA ON SILTING OF THE KRASNODAR RESERVOIR
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1