新冠肺炎疫情期间拉美和美国股市的连通性

Paulo Sergio Ceretta, V. R. Dutra, Paulo Fernando Marschner
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摘要

目的:本文旨在重新审视2019冠状病毒病大流行期间拉丁美洲和美国股市之间的关系。方法-通过对2010年1月至2021年6月的每日数据实施时变VAR模型(TVP-VAR)来估计这些市场之间的动态连通性。结果——主要有三个结果。首先,尽管每个市场的溢出效应占了方差的大部分,但交易所并非完全相互独立。其次,美国和巴西是溢出效应的净传播者,而阿根廷和智利是净接受者。最后,净溢出效应的规模还不足以形成传染效应。实际影响-将拉丁美洲股票市场纳入Covid-19研究范围是对文献的重要贡献,这些文献往往忽略了其样本中的拉丁美洲市场。独创性-对2019冠状病毒病期间市场之间联系的研究不同于大多数只关注2019冠状病毒病影响的研究。在这场不同于以往的危机中,了解拉美和美国市场之间的关系,可以帮助投资者制定投资策略,也可以帮助政策制定者、政府和货币当局对市场之间的整合或解体感兴趣。
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Connectivity between the Latin American and U.S. stock markets in the presence of the Covid-19 pandemic
Objective - This paper aims to revisit the relationship between the Latin American and U.S. stock markets during the Covid-19 pandemic. Methodology- The dynamic connectivity between these markets was estimated by implementing the time-varying VAR model (TVP-VAR) for daily data from January 2010 to June 2021. Results - There are three main results. First, although spillovers from each market accounted for most of their variance, exchanges were not entirely independent of each other. Second, the U.S. and Brazil were net transmitters of spillovers, while Argentina and Chile were net receivers. Finally, the magnitude of net spillovers is not high enough to characterize a contagion effect. Practical implications - The inclusion of Latin American stock markets in the scope of Covid-19 studies is an important contribution to the literature that often neglects Latin American markets in its samples. Originality - The study of the connection between markets in the presence of Covid-19 differs from most that focus exclusively on the impact of Covid-19. Understanding the relationship between Latin American and U.S. markets in the presence of a crisis unlike any that has occurred before can help investors in their investment strategies and policymakers, governments, and monetary authorities interested in the integration or disintegration between markets.
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