重新审视欧洲的稳定与秩序:1945 年以来的经验教训

M. Yazid
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摘要

本文重新探讨了 1945 年前后欧洲的国际结构和政治稳定问题。本文认为,在 1900 年至 1945 年和 1945 年至 1989 年这两个时期,国际政治体系与欧洲的政治稳定之间存在着关系。全球政治史和米尔斯海默的新现实主义的启示性教训表明,在美国秩序衰落的今天,多极化具有不稳定性。这是因为国际政治结构在很大程度上影响着欧洲的稳定程度。不同的全球政治结构影响了 1945 年前后不同程度的稳定。两极结构极大地影响并决定了 1945 年后欧洲的权力格局和稳定程度。1945 年前欧洲的不稳定与多极化结构密切相关;当时大国林立,七大国多极化的存在给管理大国带来了困难。因此,在它们之间达成平衡几乎是不可能的,这也是今天解读国际政治的一个教训。
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Stability and Order in Europe Revisited: Lessons since 1945
This paper revisits the question of the international structure and political stability in Europe before and after 1945. It is argued that there were relations between the international political system and political stability in Europe during the two periods: the period from 1900 to 1945 and from 1945 to 1989. Instructive lessons from global political history and Mearsheimer's Neorealism have shown the instability of multipolarity in the present decline of the US order. This is because the international political structure strongly influenced the degree of stability in Europe. The different global political structure affected the different levels of stability before and after 1945. The bipolar structure strongly influenced and determined Europe's power configuration and stability after 1945. The instability of Europe before 1945 was strongly related to the multipolarity structure; there were many great powers, and the existence of multiple polarities with seven great powers posed difficulty in managing them. Thus, striking a balance between them was nearly impossible and was a lesson for today's reading of international politics.
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