Temporal Trends in Opioids-Related Overdose Deaths and Prescription Rates in Massachusetts

Drug addiction exerts tremendous burdens on healthcare systems and societies. In the United States alone, opioids addiction cost over $500 billion in 2015 and over 50,000 people die each year from opioid-related overdoses. Health policymakers rely on drug surveillance data to combat this problem through intervention programs. In this preliminary study, we examine the temporal trends and relationship between opioids-related deaths and opioids prescription in Massachusetts. Opioids-related overdoses and fatalities have significantly increased in the state in recent years; currently, Massachusetts is identified as a hotspot in the opioids crisis in the country. By county yearly data (2013–2017) on opioids prescriptions, related deaths, and census were obtained and collated from different state agencies. Yearly deaths and prescription by county were divided by the corresponding yearly population to yield death rates and prescription rates, respectively. All yearly data were found to be normally distributed, thus Pearson correlation analysis was carried out to determine relationships between yearly death rates and prescription rates. We found significant ($\mathrm{p} < 0.05$) yearly increases in death rates from 2013 to 2016; average prescription rates were highest in 2015 but trends were decreasing in the last two years. We did not find strong correlations ($\vert \mathrm{r}_{\max}\vert = 0.24, \mathrm{p}_{\min}=0.4$) between same-year death and prescription rates. We also did not find strong correlations between current year death rates and immediate previous year prescription rates ($\vert \mathrm{r}_{\max}\vert =0.17, \mathrm{p}_{\min}=0.6$). It should be emphasized that this study is limited in scope in that only two variables were considered (prescription and death); there are other contributing factors (e.g., drug access, affordability, illness, etc.) that determine opioids addiction that were not included in our analysis. Furthermore, prescription data alone do not provide sufficient information regarding actual per capita consumption rate (i.e., dosages, drug type, and number of refills are also needed). Nonetheless, research findings can provide some insights with respect to access to opioids, particularly for opioids sourced through illicit routes or misuse. For example, where death rates continue to increase despite declining prescription rates, intervention measures may include controlling potential other drugs sources.