英国支出和收入分配的经济物理动态方法

E. Oltean, F. Kusmartsev
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引用次数: 1

摘要

我们通过使用统计物理模型系统地处理支出(据我们所知,这是第一次),扩展了关于宏观经济变量动态方法的探索。此外,使用多项式分布表征动力系统在某些情况下的行为,我们也将我们的分析扩展到英国的平均收入数据,跨越35年的时间间隔。我们发现,通过对连年分析数据的拟合得到的决定系数大部分值都在80%以上。我们使用一次多项式进行分析,但更高次多项式和更长的时间间隔可以显著提高拟合的优度。由于这种方法成功地应用于收入和财富,我们可以得出结论,宏观经济系统可以类似于物理学中的动态系统。随后,分析可以扩展到其他宏观经济指标。
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An Econophysical dynamical approach of expenditure and income distribution in the UK
We extend the exploration regarding dynamical approach of macroeconomic variables by tackling systematically expenditure using Statistical Physics models (for the first time to the best of our knowledge). Also, using polynomial distribution which characterizes the behavior of dynamical systems in certain situations, we extend also our analysis to mean income data from the UK that span for a time interval of 35 years. We find that most of the values for coefficient of determination obtained from fitting the data from consecutive years analysis to be above 80%. We used for our analysis first degree polynomial, but higher degree polynomials and longer time intervals between the years considered can dramatically increase goodness of the fit. As this methodology was applied successfully to income and wealth, we can conclude that macroeconomic systems can be treated similarly to dynamic systems from Physics. Subsequently, the analysis could be extended to other macroeconomic indicators.
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