考虑连续降雨事件的溃坝模拟研究

S. Shin, J. Lim, Kyunghun Kim, H. Kim
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引用次数: 1

摘要

近年来,连续降雨事件造成的洪涝灾害呈上升趋势。然而,现有的应急行动计划(eap)处理水库或大坝的失败只考虑可能的最大降水(PMP),它代表一次降雨事件。本研究旨在通过模拟由连续降雨事件引起的溃坝情景来解决这一限制。以忠州坝流域为研究区域,定义了连续500年发生一次的特大降雨事件情景。其次,使用基于连续风暴事件(ConSEB)模型估计特大降雨事件情景导致的洪水流量。采用简化溃坝模型(SMPDBK)进行溃坝模拟。在这种情况下,估计的洪水流量为31,080.34厘米,约为可能最大洪水(PMF)的1.2倍。SMPDBK模型模拟的溃坝水位为150 m,洪水破坏面积为307.45 km2。根据研究结果,我们强调需要考虑eap内的连续降雨事件。
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A Study on Dam Break Simulation considering Continuous Rainfall Events
In recent years, flood damage resulting from continuous rainfall events has been on the rise. However, existing Emergency Action Plans (EAPs) addressing reservoir or dam failure only consider Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP), which represents a single rainfall event. This study aims to address this limitation by simulating a dam break scenario caused by continuous rainfall events. The Chungju dam watershed was selected as the study area and a mega rainfall event scenario, involving continuous 500-year frequency rainfall intensity events, was defined. Next, the flood discharge resulting from the mega rainfall event scenario was estimated using the Consecutive Storm Event Based (ConSEB) model. The Simplified Dam Break (SMPDBK) model was employed to simulate the dam break. The flood discharge estimated for this scenario amounted to 31,080.34 cms, which is about 1.2 times larger than the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). The dam break water level simulated by the SMPDBK model was 150 m and the flood damage area was estimated to be 307.45 km2. Based on the results of the study, we highlighted the need to consider continuous rainfall events within EAPs.
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