观察病人潜伏期的随机方法

Vinoth Raman, K. Karuppaiah, Subash Chandrabose Gandhi
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摘要

在目前的环境下,艾滋病毒的传播仍然是一个巨大的调查。必须建立数学或统计模型来估计与流行病、受感染细胞的死亡率或传染性病毒产生率有关的参数。由于无法开展人们对其艾滋病毒状况的评估,导致普遍缺乏正确和全面的艾滋病毒感染数据,而个人首先参与。随机模型通过离散分布和连续分布来度量阈值的预测值,这是近二十年来许多研究者的研究成果。本文建立了一个同性恋人群中艾滋病流行时间的随机模型。通过冲击模型法推导出潜伏期的预期时间。通过仿真方法生成的信息集的拟合,由于流行病分布规划了随机模型搜索HIV流行病的时间,因此应该假设Alpha统计分布。为了检验分析论点的有效性,并探索疾病在流行阈值以上的动态,本研究得出结论,该结果的可能意义在于,由于免疫系统的强度较低,潜伏阶段的HIV传播速度更快。
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Stochastic Approach for Witnessing the Incubation Period of a Patient
The spread of HIV remains a huge investigation in this present environment. A Mathematical or Statistical model must be developed for estimating parameters related to the epidemic, the death rate of affected cells or the infectious viral production rate. Inability to carry out people evaluates their HIV status has led to widespread lack of correct and comprehensive data on HIV infection, while an individual first involved. Stochastic model measures the predicted point of threshold through discrete and continuous distribution attained by many researchers in last two decades. This paper develops a stochastic model for the time of HIV epidemic in a homosexual population. Expected time of incubation period derived through shock model approach. The fitting of information sets generated through simulation methods that the Alpha statistical distribution ought to be assumed because the epidemic distribution planned the time of stochastic model to search out HIV epidemics. To check the validity of analytical arguments and to explore the dynamics of disease above the epidemic threshold, this study concludes, the possible significance of the result is that transmit HIV in incubation stage is quicker as the intensity of the immune system is lower.
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