基于灰色关联和熵权模型的城市收缩分析

T. Yan, Long Ma
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摘要

辽宁省作为全国传统重工业大省,有30个城市面临不同程度的城市收缩。我们用K-means聚类分析对这30个城市进行了分类。然后,建立灰色关联模型。通过求解经济社会指标与萎缩城市总人口之间的灰色关联系数,得出影响城市人口萎缩的因素。最后,建立了以人口、指标和GDP为评价指标的萎缩城市综合评价体系。建立熵权法模型,确定各评价指标的权重,从而得到各城市的收缩综合指数。分别计算了各城市综合指数的变化率,分析了各萎缩城市的发展演变趋势。
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Analysis of urban contraction based on grey correlation and entropy weight models
Liaoning Province, as a national traditional heavy industry area, contains 30 cities facing varying degrees of urban contraction. We classify these 30 cities by K-means clustering analysis. Then, the grey correlation model is established. By solving the grey correlation coefficient between the economic and social indicators and the total population of shrinking cities, the factors affecting the shrinking urban population are obtained. Finally, we establish a comprehensive evaluation system of shrinking cities with population, indicators and GDP as evaluation indicators. The entropy weight method model is established to determine the weight of each evaluation index in order to obtain the contraction comprehensive index of each city. The change rate of the comprehensive index of each city is calculated respectively, and then the development and evolution trend of each shrinking city is analyzed.
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