他们的水晶球是多云还是清澈?一种实用有效的消费者情感预测准确度测量方法

Hristina Nikolova, Cait Lamberton
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引用次数: 0

摘要

无法准确预测我们的情绪被认为是消费者福祉中许多问题的根源。对于营销人员来说,消费者糟糕的情感预测会导致他们选择不合适的产品、不可靠的调查结果或购后不满。但是,营销人员能够衡量或提高做出准确情感预测的能力吗?本论文开发并验证了一个简单的情感预测准确性(AFA)量表,该量表直接可靠地捕获了消费者正确预测其未来感受能力的个体差异。我们表明,这种单维测量具有理想的心理测量特性,适当的相关性和相关构念的可区分性,并且可靠地预测消费者预测其对体育赛事结果和特殊场合体验的情感反应的能力,优于更繁琐的测量,如情商。此外,我们证明了一种简单的去偏干预(替代情感报告)在降低低AFA消费者的影响预测误差方面的有效性。
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Is Their Crystal Ball Cloudy or Clear? A Practical and Valid Measure of Consumers' Affective Forecasting Accuracy
The inability to accurately predict our emotions has been implicated as the root of numerous problems in consumer well-being. For marketers, consumers' poor affective forecasting can drive the choice of ill-suited products, unreliable survey responses, or post-purchase dissatisfaction. But can marketers measure or improve the ability to make accurate affective forecasts? The present paper develops and validates a simple affective forecasting accuracy (AFA) scale that directly and reliably captures individual variation in consumers' ability to correctly forecast their future feelings. We show that this unidimensional measure has desirable psychometric properties, appropriate correlations and discriminability from related constructs, and reliably predicts consumers' ability to predict their affective responses to sporting event outcomes and special occasion experiences, above and beyond more cumbersome measures like emotional intelligence. Further, we demonstrate the effectiveness of a simple debiasing intervention (surrogate affective reports) in attenuating the affect forecasting errors of lower AFA consumers.
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