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引用次数: 0

摘要

认识到一项行为的风险是该行为的结果,会产生一种期望效用最大化的版本,除了可能结果的概率和效用之外,它不需要对风险进行调整。这种对行为风险的处理证明了预期效用原则和平均风险原则在评估行为时的合理性。对风险的理性态度解释了按照原则行事的合理性。它们建立了支持这些原则的可分离关系。预期效用原则证明了预期效用最大化决策原则的实质版本,而不仅仅是表象版本。因此,该原则只适用于单个选择,而不仅仅是一组选择。它要求的不仅仅是集合中选择的一致性。它要求每个选择都遵循行为人的偏好,而这些偏好解释了遵循这一原则的选择的合理性。
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Conclusion
Recognizing that an act’s risk is a consequence of the act yields a version of expected-utility maximization that does not need adjustments for risk in addition to the probabilities and utilities of possible outcomes. This treatment of an act’s risk justifies the expected-utility principle, and the mean-risk principle, for evaluation of an act. Rational attitudes to risks explain the rationality of acting in accord with the principles. They ground the separability relations that support the principles. The expected-utility principle justifies a substantive, and not just a representational, version of the decision principle of expected-utility maximization. Consequently, the principle governs a single choice and not just sets of choices. It demands more than consistency of the choices in a set. It demands that each choice follow the agent’s preferences, and these preferences explain the rationality of a choice that complies with the principle.
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