基于LSTM和注意机制的负荷预测模型

Xuan Zhou, Xing Wu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

负荷预测是一个重要的研究方向,一直受到学术界和工业界的关注。准确的预测结果可以为系统的资源配置提供有效的决策。然而,应用程序负载的变化是非常复杂的。如何准确预测负荷的变化趋势是一项具有挑战性的任务。传统的预测算法,如基于统计理论的Arima算法和神经网络算法,仅通过单一负荷指标的历史序列来预测目标负荷,忽略了不同负荷指标之间的相互作用。为此,本文提出了一种基于长短期记忆网络和注意机制的负荷预测模型。该模型先后使用卷积神经网络和通道注意机制提取负载之间的局部依赖特征。采用具有注意机制的双向LSTM网络对负荷进行预测,并对不同时刻的数据赋予不同的重要程度。本文提出的模型在实际负荷数据集上取得了比现有预测算法更好的性能。
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Load prediction model based on LSTM and attention mechanism
load forecasting is an important research direction, which has always been the concern of academia and industry. Accurate prediction results can provide effective decisions for resource allocation of the system. However, the change of application load is very complex. How to accurately predict the change trend of load is a challenging task. Traditional prediction algorithms such as Arima algorithm based on statistical theory and neural network algorithm predict the target load only through the historical sequence of a single load index, ignoring the interaction between different load indexes. Therefore, this paper proposes a load prediction model based on long-term and short-term memory network and attention mechanism lstmda. The model successively uses convolutional neural network and channel attention mechanism to extract the local dependence characteristics between loads. The bidirectional LSTM network with attention mechanism is used to predict the load, and the data at different times are given different degrees of importance. The model proposed in this paper achieves better performance than existing prediction algorithms on real load data sets.
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