人择推理和量子宇宙学

J. Hartle
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引用次数: 4

摘要

量子宇宙学的预测需要对宇宙的量子动力学及其量子态进行说明。我们期望只有宇宙的几个一般特征可以用接近统一的概率来预测,这仅取决于动力学和量子态。最有用的预测是条件概率,它假设了动力学和量子态之外的附加信息。人为推理利用了以“我们”为条件的概率。本文讨论了使用这种概率的效用、局限性和理论不确定性。讨论了由于对量子态的不同程度的无知而产生的预测,包括与弦理论真空中的不确定性有关的预测。描述了使用人为推理来确定真空的一些障碍。
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Anthropic Reasoning and Quantum Cosmology
Prediction in quantum cosmology requires a specification of the universe’s quantum dynamics and its quantum state. We expect only a few general features of the universe to be predicted with probabilities near unity conditioned on the dynamics and quantum state alone. Most useful predictions are of conditional probabilities that assume additional information beyond the dynamics and quantum state. Anthropic reasoning utilizes probabilities conditioned on ‘us’. This paper discusses the utility, limitations, and theoretical uncertainty involved in using such probabilities. The predictions resulting from various levels of ignorance of the quantum state are discussed including those related to uncertainty in the vacuum of string theory. Some obstacles to using anthropic reasoning to determine this vacuum are described.
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