{"title":"我们什么时候开始?老龄化日本的养老金改革","authors":"Sagiri Kitao","doi":"10.1111/jere.12135","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Japan is faced with rapid demographic ageing and fiscal challenges. This paper simulates pension reform to reduce the replacement rate by 20% and raise the retirement age by 3 years gradually over a 30-year period. We consider three scenarios with different points in time to initiate reform in 2020, 2030 and 2040, respectively. A delay would suppress economic activities, lowering output by up to 4% and raising tax burden by more than 8% of total consumption. Delaying reform implies a transfer of costs of demographic ageing to the young and deteriorates the welfare of future generations by up to 3% in terms of consumption equivalence.</p>","PeriodicalId":45642,"journal":{"name":"Japanese Economic Review","volume":"68 1","pages":"26-47"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2017-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/jere.12135","citationCount":"9","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"When do we Start? Pension reform in ageing Japan\",\"authors\":\"Sagiri Kitao\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/jere.12135\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Japan is faced with rapid demographic ageing and fiscal challenges. This paper simulates pension reform to reduce the replacement rate by 20% and raise the retirement age by 3 years gradually over a 30-year period. We consider three scenarios with different points in time to initiate reform in 2020, 2030 and 2040, respectively. A delay would suppress economic activities, lowering output by up to 4% and raising tax burden by more than 8% of total consumption. Delaying reform implies a transfer of costs of demographic ageing to the young and deteriorates the welfare of future generations by up to 3% in terms of consumption equivalence.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":45642,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Japanese Economic Review\",\"volume\":\"68 1\",\"pages\":\"26-47\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2017-02-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/jere.12135\",\"citationCount\":\"9\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Japanese Economic Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jere.12135\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Japanese Economic Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jere.12135","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Japan is faced with rapid demographic ageing and fiscal challenges. This paper simulates pension reform to reduce the replacement rate by 20% and raise the retirement age by 3 years gradually over a 30-year period. We consider three scenarios with different points in time to initiate reform in 2020, 2030 and 2040, respectively. A delay would suppress economic activities, lowering output by up to 4% and raising tax burden by more than 8% of total consumption. Delaying reform implies a transfer of costs of demographic ageing to the young and deteriorates the welfare of future generations by up to 3% in terms of consumption equivalence.
期刊介绍：
Started in 1950 by a group of leading Japanese economists under the title The Economic Studies Quarterly, the journal became the official publication of the Japanese Economic Association in 1959. As its successor, The Japanese Economic Review has become the Japanese counterpart of The American Economic Review, publishing substantial economic analysis of the highest quality across the whole field of economics from researchers both within and outside Japan. It also welcomes innovative and thought-provoking contributions with strong relevance to real economic issues, whether political, theoretical or policy-oriented.
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