用ROC评价阈值降雨对行人影响的准确性

Kyungsu Kang Dongho Kim Byungsik Choo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

最近,由于局部暴雨在短时间内频繁发生,经济和社会影响正在增加,超出了简单的初级损害。在气象发达的国家,不像单纯的天气预报那样传递信息,而是通过分析社会经济影响来进行现实可靠的影响预报。本文利用空间径流评估工具(S-RAT)和FLO-2D模型推导洪涝程度,计算影响人类行走的阈值雨量,并计算栅格到栅格(G2G)概念下的阈值雨量。此外,虽然过去在医学领域使用较多,但通过ROC分析技术进行定量精度分析,该技术广泛应用于干旱或洪水等自然现象和机器学习。通过分析,获得了与实际浸泡和模拟浸泡相似的时间段结果,并且根据ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic)曲线,公平阶段的充分性得到了0.7以上的保证。
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Accuracy evaluation of threshold rainfall impacting pedestrian using ROC
Recently, as local heavy rains occur frequently in a short period of time, economic and social impacts are increasing beyond the simple primary damage. In advanced meteorologically advanced countries, realistic and reliable impact forecasts are conducted by analyzing socio-economic impacts, not information transmission as simple weather forecasts. In this paper, the degree of flooding was derived using the Spatial Runoff Assessment Tool (S-RAT) and FLO-2D models to calculate the threshold rainfall that can affect human walking, and the threshold rainfall of the concept of Grid to Grid (G2G) was calculated. In addition, although it was used a lot in the medical field in the past, a quantitative accuracy analysis was performed through the ROC analysis technique, which is widely used in natural phenomena such as drought or flood and machine learning. As a result of the analysis, the results of the time period similar to that of the actual and simulated immersion were obtained, and as a result of the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve, the adequacy of the fair stage was secured with more than 0.7.
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