评价法国潮汐能潜力的多准则分析

Florian Castillo, M. Ikhennicheu, J. Gilloteaux
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Yet, those sites, such has rivers or estuaries, offer softer conditions, lowering the risks. Moreover, although identifying a suitable area for tidal array implementation requires technical criteria (maximum current velocity, water depth, installable potential, etc.), it should also consider other aspects such as ecological indicators (migratory fishes, specific habitats, etc.), regulation specificities (Natura 2000, ZNIEFF, etc.) or human activities conflicts (fishery, UXO, etc.). 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引用次数: 0

摘要

法国受益于重要的潮汐能资源,其潜力在欧洲排名第二,也是世界上最大的潮汐能之一。此外,法国有重要的工业和学术结构,有几个潮汐开发商、造船厂和研究中心,理论上创造了一个有吸引力的环境。然而,尽管已经安装了一些潮汐涡轮机,如Ouessant岛的Sabella示范涡轮机,或Etel河的Guinard能源涡轮机,但该领域仍有很大的发展潜力。这种发展的一个限制是缺乏评估总潜力的可用数据。以前的研究主要集中在最具活力的地点,如奥尔德尼赛跑或弗罗弗海峡,而其他地点则被忽视了。然而,那些有河流或河口的地点提供了更柔和的条件,降低了风险。此外,虽然确定一个适合实施潮汐阵的区域需要技术标准(最大流速、水深、可安装电位等),但还应考虑其他方面,如生态指标(洄游鱼类、特定栖息地等)、法规特性(Natura 2000、ZNIEFF等)或人类活动冲突(渔业、未爆炸武器等)。最重要的是,社会经济指标,如潜在的本地内容或与相关学术利益相关者的伙伴关系,受到当局的鼓励,必须考虑在内。因此,本研究提出了一种广泛的多标准分析方法,以评估法国10个地点的潮汐能潜力,包括5个近岸地点(Alderney race, Fromveur passage, Raz-de-Sein, Raz-Barfleur, paimpoll - br hat)和5个河口、河流或类似地点(Gironde estuary, Gulf of Morbihan, Adour river, Etel river, Arcachon Bay)。分析仅限于10个地点,根据预筛选分析选择,这将在研究中详细说明。将介绍使用的不同标准,包括它们对最终分数的权重,反映它们在项目开发过程中的重要性,以及用于区分地点的3级分级系统。还将详细介绍利用世界投入产出表和其他经济参数评估潮汐阵所创造的全职等效就业的方法。将特别关注用于评估可安装容量的方法,该方法依赖于近岸站点的MARS 2D模型数据和其他站点的公共数据。首先分析表明,Raz-de-Sein和paimpol - brsamhat是两个最适合实施潮汐阵的地点,而Alderney Race是最具活力的地点。这些结果是由这些网站在生态或人类活动等类别中获得的高分所驱动的。还计算了每个项目在建设和运营阶段创造的直接、间接和诱发就业机会,以及潜在的增长价值。假设和对它们的敏感性将被讨论。本研究由H2020项目ELEMENT资助,批准号815180。
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Multi-criteria analysis to evaluate tidal energy potential in France
France benefits from an important tidal energy resource, with the second largest potential in Europe, and one of the biggest in the world. In addition, France has an important industrial and academic fabric, with several tidal developers, shipyards, and research centers, creating, theoretically, an attractive environment. However, though some tidal turbines already installed, such as Sabella demonstrator at Ouessant Island, or Guinard energy turbine in the Etel river, the sector still has a large development potential. One limitation of such a development is the lack of available data to assess the total potential. Previous studies mainly focused on the most energetic sites, such as the Alderney Race or the Fromveur Passage, while other sites are neglected. Yet, those sites, such has rivers or estuaries, offer softer conditions, lowering the risks. Moreover, although identifying a suitable area for tidal array implementation requires technical criteria (maximum current velocity, water depth, installable potential, etc.), it should also consider other aspects such as ecological indicators (migratory fishes, specific habitats, etc.), regulation specificities (Natura 2000, ZNIEFF, etc.) or human activities conflicts (fishery, UXO, etc.). On top of that, socioeconomic indicators, such as potential local content or partnerships with relevant academic stakeholders, are encouraged by authorities, and must be accounted for. Hence, this study proposes an extensive multi-criteria analysis methodology, to assess tidal energy potential of ten sites in France, including five nearshore locations (Alderney race, Fromveur passage, Raz-de-Sein, Raz-Barfleur, Paimpol-Bréhat), and five estuaries, river or similar (Gironde estuary, Gulf of Morbihan, Adour river, Etel river, Arcachon Bay). The analysis is limited to ten sites, selected based on a pre-screening analysis, which will be detailed in the study. The different criteria used will be presented, including their weight to the final score which reflect their importance during project development, and the 3-level grading system used to discriminate sites. The methodology developed to assess full-time equivalent employments created by a tidal array, using world input-output tables and other economic parameters will also be detailed. A specific focus will be proposed on methodology used to assess the installable capacity, relying on data from MARS 2D model for nearshore sites and public data for the others. First analysis shows that Raz-de-Sein and Paimpol-Bréhat are the two most suitable sites for tidal arrays implementation, while the Alderney Race is the most energetic one. Those results are driven by high scores obtained by these sites in categories such as ecological or human activities. Direct, indirect, and induced employments created during construction and operational phase by each project are also calculated, as well as potential growth value added. Hypothesis and sensitivity to them will be discussed. This research was funded by the H2020 projet ELEMENT, grant number 815180.
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