Consumer Markets

Mass consumer markets might be viewed using tools developed for the analysis of complex systems such as agent based simulations. Here we used SEMSTAT, which simulates a given number of choosy semi-rational consumer agents and of diverse shopping sites for a given series of products. The simulations closely match the consumer behavior of real populations, as measured by comparing actual sales data of the products under considerations with those predicted by the model. A real life test with markets for beers, soft drinks and cigarettes in two Latin American markets, showed fit with real data with maximal errors of 0.5 % for each product line and product category. This exercise provides new hope for an eventual quantitative detailed prediction of market dynamics. Contact: Prof. Klaus Jaffe Dept. Biología de Organismos Universidade Simón Bolívar Apardato 89000, Caracas 1080, Venezuela Tel: 58-412-9063610 http://atta.labb.usb.ve/Klaus/klaus.htm Email: kathleen.carley@cs.cmu.edu