没有浪漫的货币规则

Bryan P. Cutsinger
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在一个以规则为基础的制度中,货币当局应保持多大程度的独立性?传统观点认为,虽然政治体制——尤其是民主社会——应决定货币政策的总体目标,但央行仍应自由选择它认为最适合实现这一目标的任何“杠杆”。本文通过考察允许货币当局在控制程序的选择上自由裁量权在其目标与公众利益不一致时所产生的货币和宏观经济影响,评估工具独立性是否与基于规则的制度的目标一致。我认为,虽然仁慈的货币当局总是会选择最“有效”的政策工具,即与实现其既定目标相一致的工具,但机会主义的人可能会故意选择模糊其目标的工具,从而破坏货币规则的目的。
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Monetary Rules without Romance
How much independence should the monetary authority retain in a rules-based regime? The conventional wisdom holds that while the political system - particularly in a democratic society - should determine the overarching goal of monetary policy, the central bank should remain free to select whichever "levers" it deems most appropriate for achieving the goal. This paper evaluates whether instrument independence is consistent with the goals of a rules-based regime by examining the monetary and macroeconomic effects of allowing the monetary authority discretion over the choice of control procedures when its objectives are at odds with the public interest. I argue that while a benevolent monetary authority would always select the most "efficient" policy instrument, i.e., the instrument consistent with achieving its stated objective, an opportunistic one may intentionally choose instruments that obscure its objectives, thereby undermining the purpose of monetary rules.
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