{"title":"期望效用方法的经验效用","authors":"Baruch Fischhoff, Bernard Goitein, Z. Shapira","doi":"10.21236/ada088698","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract : Reviewing many research results, the present report concludes: (a) the ability of the weighted average models to predict the decisions that people make varies from situation to situation; (b) even where they are successful in predicting decisions, these models may not do a very good job of describing the psychological processes that determined them. That is, their predictive accuracy is in part an artifact of the research techniques used.","PeriodicalId":106177,"journal":{"name":"Expectations and Actions","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1980-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"8","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Experienced Utility of Expected Utility Approaches\",\"authors\":\"Baruch Fischhoff, Bernard Goitein, Z. Shapira\",\"doi\":\"10.21236/ada088698\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract : Reviewing many research results, the present report concludes: (a) the ability of the weighted average models to predict the decisions that people make varies from situation to situation; (b) even where they are successful in predicting decisions, these models may not do a very good job of describing the psychological processes that determined them. That is, their predictive accuracy is in part an artifact of the research techniques used.\",\"PeriodicalId\":106177,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Expectations and Actions\",\"volume\":\"10 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"1980-04-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"8\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Expectations and Actions\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.21236/ada088698\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Expectations and Actions","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.21236/ada088698","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
The Experienced Utility of Expected Utility Approaches
Abstract : Reviewing many research results, the present report concludes: (a) the ability of the weighted average models to predict the decisions that people make varies from situation to situation; (b) even where they are successful in predicting decisions, these models may not do a very good job of describing the psychological processes that determined them. That is, their predictive accuracy is in part an artifact of the research techniques used.