欧洲央行宣布扩大资产购买计划对全球金融市场的影响

Georgios P. Georgiadis, J. Gräb
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引用次数: 52

摘要

我们估计欧洲央行宣布的资产购买计划(APP)对欧元汇率、全球股票价格和债券收益率的影响。我们发现,通过表明欧洲央行未来的货币政策立场将保持宽松,欧洲央行的声明导致了欧元的广泛贬值。与此同时,通过支持投资者信心,降低欧元区通缩和持续停滞的风险,应用程序的公告提振了全球股票价格。对于那些与世界其他地区整体一体化程度更高、与欧元区的双边贸易和金融一体化程度较低、汇率制度更灵活、被认为风险更高的国家而言,与应用程序相关的新闻对汇率相对于欧元的升值幅度更大。最后,我们没有发现任何证据表明APP公告导致流向新兴市场经济体的投资组合增加。恰恰相反,欧洲央行的APP似乎促使全球投资者从新兴市场转向发达经济体的金融市场。
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Global Financial Market Impact of the Announcement of the Ecb's Extended Asset Purchase Programme
We estimate the announcement effects of the ECB's asset purchase programme (APP) on the euro exchange rate, global equity prices and bond yields. We find that the APP announcement caused a broad-based depreciation of the euro by signalling that the ECB's future monetary policy stance will remain accommodative. At the same time, the APP announcement boosted equity prices around the world by supporting investor confidence and reducing the risk of deflation and persistent stagnation in the euro area. Exchange rates appreciated more strongly vis-a-vis the euro in response to APP-related news for countries which are more integrated with the rest of the world overall, which exhibit less bilateral trade and financial integration with the euro area, which are under a more flexible exchange rate regime, and which are perceived to be more risky. Finally, we do not find any evidence that the APP announcement led to an increase in portfolios flows to emerging market economies. Quite the opposite, the ECB's APP seems to have induced a re-balancing by global investors out of emerging into advanced economies’ financial markets.
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