标定地震不确定性

José G. Perillán
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摘要

2009年4月6日凌晨,意大利拉奎拉市发生特大地震,造成数百人死亡。拉奎拉的许多居民没有为地震做好准备,他们感到被负责公共安全的科学专家出卖了。三年后,一个令人震惊的结果是,七名科学家和政府官员被判过失杀人罪,并被判处六年监禁。尽管拉奎拉七人组的判决最终被推翻,但这场争议表明,科学家和政府官员从事神话历史边界研究,却忽视了他们准确传达科学思想的责任,这带来了意想不到的后果。本章努力解决科学理想和具体科学实践并置所固有的紧张关系,因为它涉及共识概念和科学不确定性的交流。
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Demarcating Seismic Uncertainties
In the early morning hours of April 6, 2009, a devastating earthquake struck the city of L’Aquila, Italy, killing hundreds of people. Many of L’Aquila’s residents were not prepared for the earthquake and felt betrayed by scientific experts who were tasked with public safety. Three years later, in a shocking outcome, a group of seven scientists and public officials were convicted of manslaughter and sentenced to six years in prison. Although the L’Aquila Seven’s convictions were eventually reversed, this controversy illustrates the unintended consequences of scientists and public officials engaging in myth-historical boundary work but ignoring their duty to accurately communicate scientific ideas. The chapter grapples with the tension inherent in the juxtaposition of a scientific ideal and concrete scientific practice as it relates to notions of consensus and the communication of scientific uncertainty.
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