基于历史数据的农业水库长期径流模型参数优化

Jun Hong
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引用次数: 2

摘要

由于气候变化,国内水库最多的农用水库的可持续水资源管理变得尤为重要。然而,用于计算农业水库入库的降水径流模型DIROM使用的是20世纪80年代发展起来的回归方程。针对近期开始观测的农业水库的历史入流数据,采用遗传算法对DIROM的参数进行了优化。结果表明,与采用现有参数计算的年入水量相比,采用最优参数计算的历史入水量与模拟入水量的误差减小了80%左右。与历史入流量的相关系数增大至0.64,均方根误差减小至28.2 × 103 m3。因此,如果DIROM采用基于历史农业水库入水量的最优参数,将有可能以较高的精度计算长期水库入水量。本研究将为今后利用历史农业水库入库和改进降雨径流模型参数的研究做出贡献。此外,可靠的长期流入数据将支持可持续的水库管理和农业供水。
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Parameter optimization of agricultural reservoir long-term runoff model based on historical data
Due to climate change the sustainable water resources management of agricultural reservoirs, the largest number of reservoirs in Korea, has become important. However, the DIROM, rainfall-runoff model for calculating agricultural reservoir inflow, has used regression equation developed in the 1980s. This study has optimized the parameters of the DIROM using the genetic algorithm (GA) based on historical inflow data for some agricultural reservoirs that recently begun to observe inflow data. The result showed that the error between the historical inflow and simulated inflow using the optimal parameters was decreased by about 80% compared with the annual inflow with the existing parameters. The correlation coefficient and root mean square error with the historical inflow increased to 0.64 and decreased to 28.2 × 103 m3, respectively. As a result, if the DIROM uses the optimal parameters based on the historical inflow of agricultural reservoirs, it will be possible to calculate the long-term reservoir inflow with high accuracy. This study will contribute to future research using the historical inflow of agricultural reservoirs and improvement of the rainfall-runoff model parameters. Furthermore, the reliable long-term inflow data will support for sustainable reservoir management and agricultural water supply.
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