关于“是什么推动了中东的股价?”

Panos Priftakis, M. Bhatti, La Trobe
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引用次数: 0

摘要

有几个假设表明,油价的某些特性使得关注油价对股票回报的预测能力变得有趣。本文回顾了最近在文献中使用的一些模型,并选择了最合适的一个来衡量石油价格与中东选定的五个石油生产国的股票市场的关系和/或联系。特别是,本文使用两种方法来测试两个变量之间是否存在协整关系,并使用未观察到的组件模型来发现两个变量之间的关系。结果令人信服地否定了在这些以石油为基础的经济体中,石油价格和股票市场价格之间没有联系的说法。
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A NOTE ON 'WHAT DRIVES SHARE PRICES IN THE MIDDLE EAST?'
There are several hypotheses suggesting that some properties of oil prices make it interesting to focus on the predictive ability of oil prices for stock returns. This paper reviews some models recently used in the literature and selects the most suitable one for measuring the relationships and/or linkages of oil prices to the stock markets of the selected five oil producing countries in the Middle East. In particular, the paper uses two methodologies to test for the presence of a cointegrating relationship between the two variables and an unobserved-components model to find a relationship between the two variables. The results rejects convincingly that there is no linkage between the prices of oil and the stock market prices in these oil-based economies.
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