介绍后自然灾害人员损失和损害模拟器(Ḧ-Simulator):理论框架

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada, Michitaka Umemoto, J. Sapkota
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文介绍了一种新的适用于评估任何自然灾害及其对人员损失和损害影响的工具,该工具名为“自然灾害后人员损失和损害模拟器(Ḧ-Simulator)”。随后,Ḧ-Simulator应用10个指标进行工作,如:(i)不同自然灾害后对人员损失和损害的影响比率(ḦNH(i)-Ratio);(ii)灾后全面灾害对人员损失和损害的总影响比率(Ḧt-Ratio);(iii)不同自然灾害后对人员损失和损害平衡的影响(ḦNH(i)-平衡);(四)自然灾害全面后对人员损失和损害平衡的总体影响(Ḧt-Balance);(v)不同自然灾害后对人员损失和损害边际率的影响(ḦNH(i)-边际率);(vi)完全自然灾害后对人员损失和损害的总影响边际率(Ḧt-Marginal比率);(七)不同自然灾害后对损失和损害临界点的影响(ḦNH(i)-临界点);(viii)完全自然灾害后对人员损失和损害的总影响临界点(Ḧt-Critical点);(ix)不同自然灾害后对损失和损害面的影响(ḦNH(i)-面);(x)完全自然灾害后对人员损失和损害面的总影响(Ḧt-Surface)。然而,ḦNH(i)-比率和Ḧt-Ratio的测量反过来又基于同时评估九个子变量(svj),其中每个子变量用正整数" j "表示,每个子变量(svj)其后依次为:(i)死亡人数按平方公里计算(sv1);(ii)总失踪人数(平方公里)(sv2);(iii)被困总人数(平方公里)(sv3);(iv)按Km2计算的轻伤总人数(sv4);(v)危重伤员总人数(sv5);(六)按平方公里计算的疾病或流行病感染者总数(sv6);(vii)受水和空气污染影响的总人数(平方公里)(sv7);(viii)按平方公里计算的所有人的粮食和水储备能力(sv8);(九)按平方公里计算的每家医院能够接待的病人总数(sv9)。Ḧ-Simulator的主要目标是评估特定自然灾害或大量可能的自然灾害直接造成的人员损失和损害。因此,Ḧ-Simulator中分析的自然灾害依次为地震(NH1)、海啸(NH2)、洪水(NH3)、火山喷发(NH4)、台风(NH5)、火灾污染(NH6)、雪崩(NH7)、滑坡(NH8)、暴风雪(NH9)、气旋风暴(NH10)、龙卷风(NH11)、干旱(NH12)、冰雹(NH13)、沙尘暴(NH14)、飓风(NH15)。最后,Ḧ-Simulator提供了一个Microsoft excel工作表,用于输入、存储、分类、计算和可视化每平方公里由每种类型的自然灾害或所有自然灾害造成的人员损失和损害。
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An Introduction to The Post-Natural Disasters People Losses and Damage Simulator (Ḧ-Simulator): Theoretical Framework
In this paper, we introduce a new applicable tool to evaluate any post-natural disaster and its impact on people losses and damage, the new applicable tool is entitled “the post-natural disaster people losses and damage simulator (Ḧ-Simulator).” Subsequently, the Ḧ-Simulator works under the application of ten indicators such as (i) the impact of different post-natural disasters on people losses and damage ratio (ḦNH(i)-Ratio); (ii) the total impact of full post-natural disasters on people losses and damage ratio (Ḧt-Ratio); (iii) the impact of different post-natural disasters on people losses and damage balance (ḦNH(i)-Balance); (iv) the total impact of full post-natural disasters on people losses and damage balance (Ḧt-Balance); (v) the impact of different post-natural disasters on people losses and damage marginal rate (ḦNH(i)-Marginal Rate); (vi) the total impact of full post-natural disasters on people losses and damage marginal rate (Ḧt-Marginal Rate); (vii) the impact of different post-natural disasters on losses and damage critical point (ḦNH(i)-Critical Point); (viii) the total impact of full post-natural disasters on people losses and damage critical point (Ḧt-Critical Point); (ix) the impact of different post-natural disasters on losses and damage surface (ḦNH(i)-Surface); (x) the total impact of full post-natural disasters on people losses and damage surface (Ḧt-Surface). However, the measurement of the ḦNH(i)-Ratio and Ḧt-Ratio, in turn, is based on simultaneously evaluating nine sub-variables (svj), where each sub-variable is represented by “j” that is a positive integer number, each sub-variable (svj) follow this by: (i) the number of death people by Km2 (sv1); (ii) the total number of missing people by Km2 (sv2); (iii) the total number of trapped people by Km2 (sv3); (iv) the total number of minor injured people by Km2 (sv4); (v) the total number of critical injured people by Km2 (sv5); (vi) the total number of infected people by diseases or epidemics by Km2 (sv6); (vii) the total number of people affected by water and air pollution by Km2 (sv7); (viii) the capability of food and water reserves for all people by Km2 (sv8); (ix) the total number of patients that each hospital is capable to attend by Km2 (sv9). The main objective of the Ḧ-Simulator is to evaluate the people losses and damage directly from a specific natural hazard or a large number of possible natural hazards. Therefore, these natural hazards analyzed in the Ḧ-Simulator is followed by earthquake (NH1), tsunami (NH2), floods (NH3), volcano eruption (NH4), typhoon (NH5), fire pollution (NH6), snow avalanches (NH7), landslide (NH8), blizzards (NH9), cyclonic storms (NH10), Tornadoes (NH11), droughts (NH12), hailstorms (NH13), sandstorm (NH14), and hurricane (NH15) respectively. Finally, the Ḧ-Simulator offers a Microsoft excel worksheet to input, storage, classified, calculate, and visualize the people losses and damage by Km2 from each type of natural hazards or all natural hazards together.
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