An External Security Theory of Secessionist Conflict

This chapter focuses on the states' decision-making at the point at which an ethno-nationalist movement has made a demand or declaration of independence or significant autonomy. It aims at deconstructing the state's calculus at that precise moment. To build the theory, the chapter relies on three assumptions: first, it assumes that actors are strategic and forward looking; second, it assumes that states are more powerful than substate actors; and third, it treats states as “unitary” actors, a long-standing assumption in international relations. The chapter then shifts to elaborate on why secession represents a significant shift in the balance of power. It discusses how the creation of a new state leaves the host state more vulnerable to the ethnic group, generally speaking. The chapter then outlines the states' two related concerns about the external security implications of any secessionist movement.