富人在股市赌博吗?低风险异常和富裕家庭

Turan G. Bali, A. D. Gunaydin, T. Jansson, Yigitcan Karabulut
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引用次数: 3

摘要

我们提出了一个低风险异常(LRA)指数,其高值表明高风险股票具有高贝塔、高波动性和高彩票收益。我们记录了LRA指数与美国和其他国家个股交易的未来回报之间显著负的横截面关系。我们发现,高lra股票存在明显的高估,主要由散户投资者持有,而低lra股票的低估程度如此之小,以至于低风险异常是由散户投资者对高lra股票的需求驱动的,导致这些高贝塔、高波动性、高彩票收益的股票出现暂时的高估和负的未来异常回报。为了理解个人投资者如何以及为什么会对低风险异常做出贡献,我们使用了来自瑞典的大规模个人层面面板数据集,该数据集使我们能够直接观察个人安全水平下整个人口的股票投资。我们发现,风险与未来异常收益之间的异常负相关关系仅局限于富裕家庭持有的股票,而非富裕家庭和机构投资者持有的股票没有低风险异常的证据。进一步的测试还表明,富裕家庭的偏度偏好有可能解释富裕投资者对高风险股票的需求。相比之下,其他可能的解释,如基于过度自信的偏好、财务杠杆约束、下行风险和对冲需求,几乎没有得到数据的支持。
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Do the Rich Gamble in the Stock Market? Low Risk Anomalies and Wealthy Households
We propose a low risk anomaly (LRA) index with high values indicating high-risk stocks with high-beta, high-volatility, and high-lottery-payoffs. We document a significantly negative cross-sectional relation between the LRA index and future returns on individual stocks trading in the U.S. and international countries. We show that the high-LRA stocks are subject to significant overpricing and primarily held by retail investors, whereas the degree of underpricing of low-LRA stocks is so small that the low risk anomaly is driven by retail investors’ demand for high-LRA stocks, leading to temporary overpricing and negative future abnormal returns for these high-beta, high-volatility stocks with large lottery payoffs. To understand how and why individual investors contribute to the low risk anomalies, we use a large-scale individual-level panel dataset from Sweden that allows us to directly observe the stock investments of the entire population at the individual security level. We find that the anomalous negative relation between risk and future abnormal returns is only confined to those stocks held by rich households, whereas there is no evidence of low risk anomaly for stocks held by non-rich households and institutional investors. Further tests also reveal that the skewness preferences of rich households have the potential to explain the demand of wealthy investors for high-risk stocks. In contrast, other potential explanations such as the overconfidence-based preferences, constraints on financial leverage, downside risk, and hedging demand receive little support from the data.
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