全球股市被Covid-19大流行绑架了吗?

Huaibing Yu
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文基于6个主要发达股市的数据,提供了新冠肺炎全球大流行期间全球股市表现的实证证据。有证据表明,在触底前阶段,大多数股市指数的走势都单独取决于相应国家的新冠肺炎疫情发展情况。然而,在股市触底并进入复苏阶段后,这种现象基本上消失了。向量误差修正模型(VECM)证实了Covid-19大流行期间的跨市场均衡,并且如果未来引入外源冲击,预计大多数股票市场将相对较快地恢复到新的均衡。
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Have Stock Markets across the Globe Been Kidnapped by the Covid-19 Pandemic?
Based on data of 6 major developed stock markets, this paper provides empirical evidences about how stock markets across the globe behave during the Covid-19 global pandemic. Evidences show that the movements of most stock market indices were individually dependent on the development of the Covid-19 pandemic in the corresponding countries during the pre-bottom period. However, this phenomenon largely faded away after stock markets bottomed out and entered into the recovery stage. Vector error correction model (VECM) confirms the cross-markets equilibrium during the Covid-19 pandemic and the majority of stock markets are expected to restore to new equilibriums relatively quickly if exogenous shocks are introduced in the future.
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