风电预测的自动多步预测模型

Shuwen Zheng, Jie Liu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

风能是一种重要的可再生能源。由于风速的随机性,风电功率预测一直是一个具有挑战性的问题,对电力系统的运行安全具有至关重要的意义。本文提出了一种基于自适应噪声的完全集合经验模态分解(CEEMDAN)和长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络与改进遗传算法优化相结合的多步骤风电预测混合方法。优化LSTM的未知参数和结果重构中的分量聚合权值,提高预测性能。最后,以ELIA风电实测数据为例,验证了该方法的有效性。
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Automatic Multi-steps Prediction Modelling for Wind Power Forecasting
Wind power is an important source of renewable energy. Owing to the randomness of wind speed, wind power forecasting has always been a challenging issue and is of paramount significance to the operation safety of power systems. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid method for multi-steps wind power forecasting, which combines the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network with modified Genetic Algorithm optimization. The unknown parameters of LSTM and component aggregation weights in result reconstruction are optimized to improve the forecasting performance. A case study concerning the real wind power datasets from ELIA is carried out to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
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