保加利亚多瑙河平原夏季降水的变率

N. Nikolova, S. Vassilev
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引用次数: 13

摘要

近年来,干旱和洪水等极端气候变得越来越频繁,并对人类社会产生了负面影响。因此,了解降水变率的特性是非常重要的。本文研究了保加利亚最重要的农业区之一-多瑙河平原夏季降水的变化。夏季时间确定为5月至10月。该研究基于1961-2005年的月降水总量。降水变率与世界气象组织确定的1961-1990年的“当代气候”进行了比较分析。为了研究降水变化,计算了正常百分率、降水异常指数和累积异常等指标。两次湿润期(1865-1983年和1993-2005年)和一次干旱期(1983-1993年)已经确定。采用Kriging插值法来表示降水变率的特殊分布。
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Variability of summer-time precipitation in Danube plain, Bulgaria
Over the recent years the climate extremes like as drought and floods become more often and have negative impact on human society. That is way it is very important to know the peculiarities of precipitation variability. The paper investigates precipitation variability during summer time in one of the most important agriculture region in Bulgaria - Danube Plain. The summer-time is determined for the period May - October. The study is based on monthly precipitation total for the period 1961-2005. The precipitation variability is analyzed by comparison with the period 1961-1990, determined by World Meteorological Organization as "contemporary climate". In order to investigate the precipitation variability the various indices lake as Percent of Normal, Rainfall Anomaly Index and Cumulative Anomaly have been calculated. Two wet spells (1865-1983 and 1993-2005) and one dry spell (1983-1993) have been identified. The Kriging interpolation has been applied for presenting special distribution of precipitation variability.
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