通货膨胀和价格调整:1975-2004年挪威消费者价格数据的证据

Fredrik Wulfsberg
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引用次数: 10

摘要

我用30年来包括高通胀和低通胀时期的月度数据来记录价格调整的频率和规模。当通货膨胀率高时,价格以较小的幅度更频繁地上涨;当通货膨胀率低时,价格上涨的频率较低,但幅度较大。一种新的通货膨胀率分解方法表明,当通货膨胀率高且不稳定时,价格变化的频率对通货膨胀的变化比价格变化的幅度更重要。当通货膨胀率低而稳定时,价格变化的幅度更为重要。因此,假设外生价格变动概率的货币政策分析受到卢卡斯批评的影响。
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Inflation and Price Adjustments: Evidence from Norwegian Consumer Price Data 1975-2004
I document the frequency and size of price adjustments using thirty years of monthly data covering both high- and low-inflation periods. Prices increase more frequently in smaller amounts when inflation is high, and less frequently but in larger amounts when inflation is low. A novel decomposition of the inflation rate shows that when inflation is high and volatile the frequency of price changes is more important for the variation in inflation than is the magnitude of price changes. When inflation is low and stable the magnitude of the price changes is more important. Monetary policy analysis assuming an exogenous probability of changing prices are thus subject to the Lucas critique.
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