基于ARIMA模型的雨红球菌生长预测研究

Yongli Zhang, Xiaoli Wang, Shigang Cui, Jingyu Zhang, J. Su
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引用次数: 0

摘要

雨红球菌的生命周期较为复杂,培养需要很多适宜的条件,因此培养效果难以预测。因此,为了探究雨红球菌细胞在增殖阶段的短期生长状况,选取藻细胞平均半径为99组的样本数据作为研究对象,对样本数据序列进行稳定性检验和白噪声检验。根据数据序列的稳定性,确定模型参数,建立ARIMA模型对时间序列进行预测。为了证明模型的适用性和准确性,将藻类细胞半径的真实值与预测值进行了比较。红球藻细胞半径误差在10%以内,说明该模型可为短期内藻类细胞的生长预测带来参考研究价值。
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Study on growth prediction of Haematococcus pluvialis based on ARIMA model
The life cycle of Haematococcus pluvialis is more complicated, and cultivation requires many suitable conditions, so it is difficult to predict the cultivation effect. Therefore, in order to explore the short-term growth status of Haematococcus pluvialis cells in the proliferation stage, 99 groups of sample data with the average radius of algae cells are selected as the research object, and the stability test and white noise test of the sample data sequence are performed. According to the stability of the data series, the model parameters were determined, and the ARIMA model was established to predict the time series. In order to prove the applicability and accuracy of the model, the real value and the predicted value of the algae cell radius were compared. Haematococcus cell radius error is within 10%, It shows that the model can bring reference research value for the growth prediction of algae cells in the short-term.
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