用网络改进流行病建模

Ben R. Craig, Thomas M. Phelan, Jan-Peter Siedlarek, J. Steinberg
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引用次数: 14

摘要

许多用于跟踪、预测和通报COVID-19等流行病应对措施的模型都假设,每个人都有平等的机会遇到感染某种疾病的人。但这一假设并没有反映出这样一个事实,即个人的互动主要是在更小的群体内进行的。我们认为,将解释现实世界相互作用模式的网络视角纳入流行病学模型,可以为传染病的传播提供有用的见解。
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Improving Epidemic Modeling with Networks
Many of the models used to track, forecast, and inform the response to epidemics such as COVID-19 assume that everyone has an equal chance of encountering those who are infected with a disease. But this assumption does not reflect the fact that individuals interact mostly within much narrower groups. We argue that incorporating a network perspective, which accounts for patterns of real-world interactions, into epidemiological models provides useful insights into the spread of infectious diseases.
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