金融自由化还是金融发展?使用基于delphi的自由化指数进行测试

N. Groenewold, Jiangang Peng, Guanzheng Li, Xiangmei Fan
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引用次数: 3

摘要

大多数对金融-增长关系的实证分析都使用金融发展的指标,如货币或金融资产与GDP的比率来衡量金融发展。我们认为,从政策角度来看,金融自由化或改革措施更有意义,此外,不太可能受到内生问题的困扰,内生问题一直困扰着实证增长文献。本文采用德尔菲法和主成分分析法相结合的方法,构建了中国金融自由化的指标。中国的金融发展在很大程度上是由政策驱动的,我们可以预期,在金融改革和金融发展的措施之间,至少在时机上,会有明显的差异。我们将我们的金融自由化指数与一些衡量金融发展的标准指标进行了比较,发现有普遍的证据表明,金融自由化会导致金融发展,反之则不然。
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FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION OR FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT? TESTS USING DELPHI-BASED INDEX OFLIBERALIZATION
Most empirical analysis of the finance-growth nexus has used measures of financial development such as the ratio of monetary or financial assets to GDP to measure financial development. We argue that from a policy perspective measures of financial liberalization or reform are of greater interest and, besides, are less likely to be beset by endogeneity problems which have dogged the empirical growth literature.We develop such a measure by combining the ‘Delphi’ method and principal components analysis to construct an index of financial liberalization for China. Much of China’s financial development has been policy-driven and we could expect to find a distinct difference, at least in timing, between measures of financial reform and financial development. We compare our financial liberalization index to a number of standard measures of financial development and find that there is pervasive evidence that financial liberalization Gr anger-causes financial development but not vice versa.
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