Off-nominal trajectory computation applied to unmanned aircraft system traffic management

An Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management System (UTM) relies significantly on automation, introducing the need for efficient and accurate trajectory computation to enable coordination and safety. The main objective of this paper is to present and to organize prior work and relevant concepts with the goal of developing a framework for UAS trajectory prediction in the presence of anomalous events. Literature documenting UAS safety and risk assessment has provided multiple pointers for identification and characterization of system failures that cause trajectory deviations or changes to its associated qualities. A UAS trajectory modeling framework considering endogenous and exogenous factors affecting the trajectory is introduced and used in this exposition. In addition, a general formulation of the trajectory computation challenge is presented along with key requirements for potential solution approaches.