OML-ZZZ: Water Production Forecasting Improvement

Reliable production forecasting of all fluid streams involved in hydrocarbon production has remained a perennial problem in the oil and gas industry. This paper presents the methodology and results of an improvement to the water forecasting approach adopted in the management of all the producing fields and reservoirs of OML-ZZZ located in the Niger Delta area of Nigeria. The main objective of our study was to identify and evaluate a means of achieving water/liquid forecast that is representative of field observed trends – a key input for the sizing of planned water dehydration facilities for our fields. Our study made use of an integrated production forecasting solution model with the associated engineering and geoscience data, which optimizes on oil production while forecasting the other fluid streams subject to defined system constraints. Improvement in water forecast was achieved through a review of the abandonment conditions of quit wells which have already reached their abandonment as analogues for producing wells being forecasted. Based on the review, we identified and applied recommended tranches of BSW conditions which have enabled better and more realistic forecasts of gross liquid and water production. The benefits of these improved forecasts include an increase in oil volumes and proper equipment/facilities sizing among others.