累犯预测:特征选择过程的研究

A. Azeroual, Youssef Taher, B. Nsiri
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摘要

在世界范围内,有几个因素归因于高犯罪率。预防和打击犯罪是各国共同关注的重大问题。在全球化和新的信息和通信技术的时代,通过传统的方法(执法,社会干预……)来减少这些犯罪率是不够的。事实上,它们有很多限制。今天,通过使用机器学习算法分析大量犯罪数据,研究人员可以利用这些技术的重要优势,特别是在世界著名的累犯问题的背景下。通过使用这些最新的创新,安全部门可以在再次犯罪发生之前预测其发生的方式、时间和地点。然而,这些预测模型和软件的效率、质量和准确性取决于几个因素。特征选择过程是其中一个关键因素。通过提高这一过程的质量,我们可以减少过度拟合,消除冗余数据,减少训练时间。在此背景下,本研究特别关注累犯特征选择的过程(我们未来累犯预测框架的第一阶段)。本文在详细研究累犯理论因素、累犯特征选择方法的基础上,对累犯特征选择的关键要素(特征、特征分类、特征选择方法)进行了比较研究。我们的主要目标是准备一个重要的累犯特征知识库。这个数据库将考虑到所有以前和最近的项目获得的不同组的累犯特征。它也将用于我们的累犯预测框架。
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Recidivism forecasting: A study on process of feature selection
Across the world, there are several factors attributed to high crime rates. The prevention of and the fight against crimes is a major concern of all countries. In the era of globalization and new information and communication technologies, reducing these crimes rate by using conventional methods (law enforcement, social interventions...) are not enough. In fact, they have many limits. Today, by analyzing a large volume of crimes data with machine learning algorithms, researchers can take important advantage of these technologies, especially in the context of the world's famous problem of recidivism. By using these recent innovations, security departments can predict how, when, and where reoffending will happen before it actually happens. However, the efficiency, the quality, and the accuracy of these forcasting models and software depend on several factors. The process of feature selection is one of these key factors. By improving the quality of this process, we can reduce over fitting and eliminating redundant data as well as training time. In this context, this investigation paid particular attention to the process of recidivism features selection (first phase of our future recidivism forcasting framework). Based on detailed study of recidivism theoretical factors, previous and recent methods used in recidivism features selection, we present a comparative study on all key elements used in this phase (features, categories of features and methods of features selection). Our main objective is to prepare an important knowledge database for recidivism features. This database will take into account different sets of recidivism features obtained by all previous and recent projects. It will also be used in our recidivism forcasting framework.
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