模拟商业购物区的大规模疏散情景-方法和案例研究

M. Rossetti, Qingbiao Ni
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引用次数: 15

摘要

大规模区域疏散是国土安全应急预案的重要组成部分;然而,涉及大型商业购物区的疏散并不是研究活动的主要重点领域。本文以商业购物区内停车场的疏散为例,提出了微观模拟大规模疏散建模的方法。建立并验证了背景交通的基本模型,以反映真实的交通状况。在模拟实验中,通过停车场占用率和背景交通水平等不同因素,开发并探索了六种疏散场景。试图疏散区域的车辆的表现是根据疏散风险概况来记录的,该风险概况涉及问题最严重的停车场和预计会出现交通瓶颈的区域。
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Simulating large-scale evacuation scenarios in commercial shopping districts - methodologies and case study
Large-scale regional evacuation is an important component of homeland security emergency response planning; however, evacuations involving large commercial shopping areas have not been a major focus area for research initiatives. This paper presents microscopic simulation methods for modeling large scale evacuations within the context of a case study involving the evacuation of parking lots within a commercial shopping district. A base model for background traffic was constructed and validated in order to represent real traffic conditions. Six evacuation scenarios were developed and explored within simulation experiments by varying factors involving the occupancy rate of parking lots and background traffic levels. The performance of vehicles attempting to evacuate the areas was captured in terms of an evacuation risk profile involving the most problematic parking lots and areas where traffic bottlenecks are projected to occur.
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