Kinneret湖生态变化的可预测性

Gophen Moshe
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摘要

分析了1969-2000年Kinneret湖生态系统的几个关键生态因子:浮游植物、绿藻、蓝藻和硅藻生物量的增加;在215 ~ 240 ~ 175 ~ 200 (g/m2)范围内,Peridinium的下降幅度最大;浮游动物(食草动物和捕食动物)相对于浮游植物生物量(g/m2)的下降;约旦河排放的氮和磷的负荷较低;降水和湖泊水位下降;土壤氮素的显著下降和磷浓度的微小变化引发了N/P质量比的下降,建立了从磷限制到氮限制的生态系统的显著变化。在Kinneret湖进行的20年(1969-2000)常规和综合监测的结果,除了未来预测的基本结果之外,还能有什么?2000年之后的Kinneret湖生态系统动态证明了追溯事后早期适当可预测性结论的合理性。
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Predictability of Ecological Changes in Lake Kinneret
Several ecological key factors were indicated in the Lake Kinneret ecosystem during 1969-2000: Elevation of the biomass of non-pyrrhophyte-phytoplankton, chlorophyta, cyanobacteria, and diatoms; decline of Peridinium maximal from 215 - 240 to 175 - 200 ranges (g/m2); decline of zooplankton (herbivore and predator) relative to phytoplankton biomass (g/m2); lower loads of Nitrogen and slightly also phosphorus in the river Jordan discharge; decline of precipitations and lake water level; significant decline of epilimnetic nitrogen and minor changes of phosphorus concentrations initiated decline of N/P mass ratio to the establishment of a significant change of the ecosystem to be modified from P to N limitation. What could be other than essential outcome of future prediction that results of 20 years (1969-2000) of routine and comprehensive monitor carried out in Lake Kinneret initiated? The Lake Kinneret ecosystem dynamics after 2000 justified retroactive post-factum earlier conclusion of appropriate predictability.
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