能源消费、出口、GDP和进口对印尼二氧化碳排放的影响

Oky Lestari
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摘要

本研究的目的是利用世界银行的数据检验出口、进口、GDP和能源消耗对印度尼西亚二氧化碳排放的关系。本研究是一种使用VAR (Vector Autoregression)估计的定量研究。所用数据来自1971-2014年时间序列的二次数据。本研究的数据分析技术采用向量自回归(VAR)方法。检验包括最优滞后检验、格兰杰因果检验、协整检验、平稳性检验、VAR稳定性检验、脉冲响应函数检验和方差去污检验。本研究发现,经济活动的增加一般会影响二氧化碳气体排放量的增加,这是由经济的大量能源消耗造成的。二氧化碳排放量的增加会引起气候变化,从而造成环境破坏。格兰杰因果检验分析表明,出口对CO2排放没有任何影响。所以就进口而言,二氧化碳也没有因果关系。VAR分析检验还解释了出口和进口活动对增加CO2没有显著影响,因为两个变量的值都高于t统计值。因此,国际贸易对二氧化碳的增加和环境的恶化没有影响。根据这项研究的发现,二氧化碳排放量会因能源使用而上升。
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The Effects Energy Consumption, Export, GDP, and Import on Indonesia’s Emission of CO2
The purpose of this study is to examine the connection between exports, imports, GDP, and energy consumption on Indonesia's CO2 emissions used the World Bank data. This research is a type of quantitative research using VAR (Vector Autoregression) estimation. The data used comes from secondary data in a time series from 1971-2014. The data analysis technique in this study used the Vector-Autoregression (VAR) method. The tests performed include the optimum lag, Granger causality test, cointegration test, stationary test, VAR stability test, Impulse Response Function, and Variance Decontamination test. This study found that an increase in economic activity, in general, will affect an increase in CO2 gas emissions, which is caused by the large energy consumption of the economy. The increase in CO2 emissions will cause climate change, thus causing environmental damage. The Granger causality test analysis demonstrates the exports no one has any effect on CO2 emissions.So with imports, there is also no causality to CO2. The VAR analysis test also explains that export and import activities have no significant effect on increasing CO2 because both variables' values are higher than with the t-statistics' values. So, international trade has no effect on increasing CO2 and environmental degradation. According to the study's findings, CO2 emissions can rise as a result of energy usage.
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