社会经济研究中的复杂指标:利弊

I. Yegorov
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摘要

这篇文章致力于解决一个重要问题——对测量复杂社会经济过程的程序进行批判性分析。衡量社会经济动态的指标、方法和途径需要不断改进程序,这是世界各国科学家和主要国际组织进行的大量研究的主题。最近几十年来,随着所谓的复杂指标的出现,这个问题变得特别重要。据这些指标的作者说,这些指标概括了社会经济发展的某些方面。这为从具有不同维度的一系列指标转向更容易接受的“一维”指标开辟了道路,这种指标更容易被高级管理人员接受。在过去的二十年中,这种综合指标的数量稳步增加,已达到数百个。本文的目的是确定基于复杂指标的评估社会经济发展方法的趋势,分析其与“传统”方法相比的优点和缺点,并为这些方法的可能组合提供建议。研究方法:对各种发展指标的使用进行有意义的回顾性分析,概括科学的信息来源,综合和比较复杂指标中使用的“个别”指标。资料来源:关于使用世界不同国家综合指标的数据、评价科学机构的管理框架、国内外专家和国际组织的出版物。确定了导致客观困难出现的四个问题领域:成为构建CI基础的主要指标的选择和呈现;可靠性和比较数据的可能性问题(对类似现象的不同定义或在不同国家使用的相同概念的不同内容);使用卷积和计算点的方法;分析得到的稳定性结果。通过对具体复杂指标的分析表明,新出现的问题并不总是得到合理的解决。事实上,一些独联体的组成导致操纵,最终结果符合某些政治组织和(或)个别国家的利益。在形成个体CI的过程中得出了关于特定偏差的结论。为了“纠正”CI实施中获得的数据,建议使用传统的统计指标和复杂指标,因为这些“传统”指标在许多情况下比CI具有一定的优势。我们也建议更多的关注CI形成的过程,以减少被操纵的机会,获得更客观的结果。
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Complex Indicators in Socio-Economic Studies: Advantages and Disadvantages
The article is devoted to an important problem — to critical analysis of procedures for measuring complex socio-economic processes. Indicators, methods, approaches to measuring socio-economic dynamics require constant improvement of procedures and are the subject of numerous studies by scientists from different countries of the world and by the leading international organizations. This issue has become particularly relevant in recent decades with the advent of so-called complex indicators (CI), which, according to their authors, generalize certain aspects of socio-economic development. This opens the way to move from an array of indicators that have different dimensions to more acceptable «one-dimensional» indicators, which are more acceptable for high-ranking managers. Over the past two decades, the number of such comprehensive indicators has steadily increased and reached several hundred. The purpose of the article is to identify trends in approaches to assessing socio-economic development based on the utilisation of complex indicators, analyze their advantages and disadvantages in comparison with «traditional» approaches, and provide recommendations for a possible combination of these approaches. Research methods: meaningful retrospective analysis of the use of various development indicators, generalization of scientific sources of information, synthesis and comparison of «individual» indicators used in complex indicators. Source base: data on the use of comprehensive indicators for different countries of the world, regulatory framework for evaluating scientific institutions, publications of domestic and foreign specialists and international organizations. Four problem areas that cause the emergence of objective difficulties are identified: the choice and presentation of primary indicators that become the basis for building CI; the issues of reliability and the possibility of comparing data (different definitions for similar phenomena or different content of the same concepts when used in different countries); the use of methods of convolution and calculation of points; analysis of the stability of the results obtained. Based on the analysis of specific complex indicators, it is shown that emerging problems are not always solved rationally. In fact, composition of some CIs leads to manipulation with the final results in the interests of certain political organizations and (or) individual countries. Conclusions are drawn about specific bias in the procedures for forming individual CI. To «correct» the data obtained with CI implementation, it is proposed to use traditional statistical indicators along with complex indicators, as these ‘traditional’ indicators have certain advantages over CI in many cases. It is also recommended to pay more attention to the processes of CI formation in order to reduce opportunities for manipulation and obtain more objective results.
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