未来印度电动汽车渗透的可行性分析

Ankuja Jain, H. Jariwala, Uday Mhaskar
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摘要

在全球范围内,汽车行业已经发生了范式转变。本文讨论了印度电动汽车未来能源消耗的测量和估算这一最基本的问题。因此,首先进行未来分析以了解电动汽车车队,然后考虑到车辆电气化的20%,30%和100%的不同情景,估计2030年未来每年的能源消耗,因为这些目标是由印度政府实现的。从印度汽车制造商协会(SIAM)收集了汽车生产的数据,并根据生产趋势估计了2030年的未来汽车。对于不同类别的汽车,收集了不同制造商的电动汽车电池规格,并取其平均值进行分析。此外,假设每辆车的平均行驶距离,并据此估计了每年的能源消耗。本文还进行了成本节约分析,阐述了使用传统车辆和使用电动汽车时的成本差异。正如我们所知,燃料价格正在过度上涨,这对该国的经济来说是一个巨大的问题。这一分析将估算出,如果汽车100%电气化,节省的总成本将不可否认地对该国的经济产生巨大的推动作用。
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Feasibility Analysis for the Penetration of Electric Vehicles in India in Future
Globally, there has been a paradigm shift in the automotive industry. This paper deals with the very basic issue of measuring and estimating the future energy consumption by electric vehicle (EV) in India. So, first the future analysis is made to know the electric vehicle fleet and then the future energy consumption per year is estimated for 2030 considering different scenarios of 20%, 30% and 100% electrification of vehicles, as these targets are to be achieved by the government of India. Data of automobile production has been collected from the Society of Indian Automobiles Manufacturer (SIAM) and with that trend of production the future vehicles in 2030 has been estimated. For the different categories of automobiles the battery specifications of EV by different manufacturers has been collected and the average of those is taken for the analysis. Further, the average distance driven by each vehicle is assumed and for that the energy consumption annually has been estimated. This paper also depicts the cost saving analysis which elaborates the difference in cost when the conventional vehicles are used and when EV are used. As we know that the prices of fuel are exorbitantly rising which is a huge concern for the economy of the country. This analysis will estimate that the total cost saved if100% electrification of vehicles takes place which will undeniably a colossal boost to the economy of the country.
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