{"title":"引言:前进","authors":"Louis-Philippe Rochon, Virginie Monvoisin","doi":"10.4337/9781788973694.00006","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The financial crisis that began in 2007 has generally shown the weaknesses of neoclassical theories and policies, in particular by highlighting the irrelevance of modern macro models such as the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model and its microfoundations, which has come under considerable attack in the last few years, even from the mainstream. Indeed, as Lavoie (2018, p. 15) observes, “there is considerable dissatisfaction with the current state of mainstream macroeconomics”, leading The Economist (2009) to refer to the “turmoil among macroeconomists”. As early as 2009, Krugman (2009a, Internet) was claiming “[t]he economics profession mistook beauty, clad in impressive-looking mathematics, for truth”. More recently, he once again criticised the quest for microfoundations (see 2013, Internet), arguing “so the truth was that microfoundations in macroeconomics had its moment, but failed utterly at the one thing it was sold, above all, as being able to do – namely, give a better explanation of why nominal shocks have real effects. Time, you might think, to reconsider the project”. A few years earlier, Solow, in a 2010 address to the United States Congress, disapprovingly claimed “I do not think that the currently popular DSGE models pass the smell test” (see Solow, 2010). More recently, the Oxford Review of Economic Policy has dedicated two entire issues to the mainstream criticism, although a careful reading of the various contributions reveals the schism is not as deep (see Rochon and Rossi, 2018). Indeed, most articles are of the opinion that the problem with the DSGE model and its failure to predict the crisis or to suggest any meaningful policies since, is because of the lack of the right kind of microfoundations, or what King (2012, p. 150) describes as a debate over “our [microfoundations] are better than yours”. There is no general call for the abandonment or replacement of DSGE models. Far from it. Rather, many are proposing amending the model and nothing more. Indeed, there are calls for the introduction of financial frictions, and other such imperfections, all in the aim of moving away from the RARE (rational expectations, representative agent) DSGE model (see King, 2012). 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Indeed, as Lavoie (2018, p. 15) observes, “there is considerable dissatisfaction with the current state of mainstream macroeconomics”, leading The Economist (2009) to refer to the “turmoil among macroeconomists”. As early as 2009, Krugman (2009a, Internet) was claiming “[t]he economics profession mistook beauty, clad in impressive-looking mathematics, for truth”. More recently, he once again criticised the quest for microfoundations (see 2013, Internet), arguing “so the truth was that microfoundations in macroeconomics had its moment, but failed utterly at the one thing it was sold, above all, as being able to do – namely, give a better explanation of why nominal shocks have real effects. Time, you might think, to reconsider the project”. A few years earlier, Solow, in a 2010 address to the United States Congress, disapprovingly claimed “I do not think that the currently popular DSGE models pass the smell test” (see Solow, 2010). More recently, the Oxford Review of Economic Policy has dedicated two entire issues to the mainstream criticism, although a careful reading of the various contributions reveals the schism is not as deep (see Rochon and Rossi, 2018). Indeed, most articles are of the opinion that the problem with the DSGE model and its failure to predict the crisis or to suggest any meaningful policies since, is because of the lack of the right kind of microfoundations, or what King (2012, p. 150) describes as a debate over “our [microfoundations] are better than yours”. There is no general call for the abandonment or replacement of DSGE models. Far from it. Rather, many are proposing amending the model and nothing more. Indeed, there are calls for the introduction of financial frictions, and other such imperfections, all in the aim of moving away from the RARE (rational expectations, representative agent) DSGE model (see King, 2012). 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引用次数: 0
摘要
始于2007年的金融危机总体上显示了新古典主义理论和政策的弱点,特别是通过突出现代宏观模型的不相关性,如动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型及其微观基础,这些模型在过去几年中受到了相当大的攻击,甚至来自主流。事实上,正如Lavoie(2018,第15页)所观察到的那样,“对主流宏观经济学的现状存在相当大的不满”,导致《经济学人》(2009)将其称为“宏观经济学家之间的动荡”。早在2009年,克鲁格曼(2009a, Internet)就声称“经济学专业误把外表令人印象深刻的数学所包裹的美当成了真理”。最近,他再次批评了对微观基础的追求(见2013年,互联网),认为“所以事实是微观基础在宏观经济学中有它的时刻,但在一件事上完全失败了,最重要的是,它能够做的——即,更好地解释为什么名义冲击有实际影响。”你可能会想,是时候重新考虑这个项目了。”几年前,索洛在2010年对美国国会的一次演讲中,不以为然地声称“我不认为目前流行的DSGE模型通过了气味测试”(见索洛,2010)。最近,《牛津经济政策评论》(Oxford Review of Economic Policy)专门用了两个完整的问题来讨论主流批评,尽管仔细阅读各种贡献会发现分歧并不那么深刻(见Rochon和Rossi, 2018)。事实上,大多数文章都认为,DSGE模型的问题及其未能预测危机或提出任何有意义的政策,是因为缺乏合适的微基金会,或者像King (2012, p. 150)所描述的那样,是一场关于“我们的[微基金会]比你们的好”的辩论。没有普遍要求放弃或更换DSGE模型。远非如此。相反,许多人只是提议修改模型,仅此而已。事实上,有人呼吁引入金融摩擦和其他类似的不完善,所有这些都是为了摆脱RARE(理性预期,代表性代理)DSGE模型(见King, 2012)。然而,尝试
The financial crisis that began in 2007 has generally shown the weaknesses of neoclassical theories and policies, in particular by highlighting the irrelevance of modern macro models such as the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model and its microfoundations, which has come under considerable attack in the last few years, even from the mainstream. Indeed, as Lavoie (2018, p. 15) observes, “there is considerable dissatisfaction with the current state of mainstream macroeconomics”, leading The Economist (2009) to refer to the “turmoil among macroeconomists”. As early as 2009, Krugman (2009a, Internet) was claiming “[t]he economics profession mistook beauty, clad in impressive-looking mathematics, for truth”. More recently, he once again criticised the quest for microfoundations (see 2013, Internet), arguing “so the truth was that microfoundations in macroeconomics had its moment, but failed utterly at the one thing it was sold, above all, as being able to do – namely, give a better explanation of why nominal shocks have real effects. Time, you might think, to reconsider the project”. A few years earlier, Solow, in a 2010 address to the United States Congress, disapprovingly claimed “I do not think that the currently popular DSGE models pass the smell test” (see Solow, 2010). More recently, the Oxford Review of Economic Policy has dedicated two entire issues to the mainstream criticism, although a careful reading of the various contributions reveals the schism is not as deep (see Rochon and Rossi, 2018). Indeed, most articles are of the opinion that the problem with the DSGE model and its failure to predict the crisis or to suggest any meaningful policies since, is because of the lack of the right kind of microfoundations, or what King (2012, p. 150) describes as a debate over “our [microfoundations] are better than yours”. There is no general call for the abandonment or replacement of DSGE models. Far from it. Rather, many are proposing amending the model and nothing more. Indeed, there are calls for the introduction of financial frictions, and other such imperfections, all in the aim of moving away from the RARE (rational expectations, representative agent) DSGE model (see King, 2012). Yet, attempts