1937年凯恩斯的反马绍尔派:对马绍尔派、罗伯逊和庇古的通论分析:庇古的《货币工资与失业的关系》

M. E. Brady
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引用次数: 0

摘要

1937年8月,凯恩斯发现,在丹尼斯·罗伯逊(Dennis Robertson)非常明确和热情的支持下,庇古正计划在《经济杂志》(Economic Journal)上发表一篇论文,该论文采用了他在1933年的《失业理论》(the Theory of Unemployment)中使用的马歇尔式、部分均衡、其他条件不变(constant money income)的函数分析,该分析只包含一个自变量。1937年,庇古提出有两种不同的利率决定理论。第一个是M=L(r),因此货币的需求和供给单独决定利率。第二个是M=L(Y),因此只有总收入决定利率。当然,在总利率(Y,r)空间中不存在这样的函数。凯恩斯正确地指出庇古论文中缺失的方程是凯恩斯的流动性偏好函数M=L(Y,r)。只有这个函数存在于(Y,r)空间中。庇古1937年论文中的一个次要观点是,庇古还认为,利率等于一个常数的时间偏好率。当然,这与马歇尔学派关于货币收入不变的条件不变假设的部署是一致的。卡尔多显然认为这是核心问题,而且更为重要。现在凯恩斯知道更好,但他,作为裁判,允许Kaldor继续因为Kaldor正确部署凯恩斯的IS-LP (LM),尽管Kaldor相信希克斯的模型,证明果断附近的图降到一个脚注的文章,这些钱削减工资只能通过改变LP (LM)曲线,希克斯已经更名为LL曲线,向右,所以兆瓦,货币工资的单位,将增加Y和低LP (LM)转移到右边。庇古在1938年的一篇笔记中评论道,“我无法理解凯恩斯先生的简短笔记的推理,它先于卡尔多先生的?”证明了庇古和罗伯逊仍然无法摆脱马歇尔式的、部分均衡的、其他条件相同的分析,这些分析在宏观层面上是毫无价值的。庇古和罗伯逊无法处理有两个自变量的函数。庇古在1938年的回复中从未提及卡尔多的图形化总结,因为他无法理解凯恩斯的IS-LP(LM)模型所做的事情。凯恩斯使用1937年卡尔多对庇古的错误假设和分析的评论,后者得到了D.罗伯逊的充分支持(见a . Robinson给凯恩斯的信,CWJMK,第14卷,第239页),为伪凯恩斯主义者建立了一个测试。凯恩斯向他们提供了在《经济学人》上发表文章的机会,前提是他们能对庇古1938年3月发表的那篇文章做出回应,简单地从《总论》第199页中引入凯恩斯的LP函数,以证明庇古的模型完全是错误的。伪凯恩斯主义的回应是拒绝凯恩斯非常有利的提议,并试图破坏凯恩斯主义革命,以推进他们自己虚假、琐碎和机会主义的主张。
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Keynes's Anti Marshallian, General Theory Analysis Against the Marshallians, Robertson and Pigou, in 1937: Pigou' 'Money Wages in Relation to Unemployment'
In August 1937, Keynes discovered that Pigou, with the very explicit and rabid support of Dennis Robertson, was planning on publishing a paper in the Economic Journal which deployed the same type of Marshallian, partial equilibrium,ceteris paribus (constant money income) analysis with functions containing only one independent variable that he had used in his 1933 "The Theory of Unemployment". In 1937, Pigou argued that there were two separate theories of interest rate determination. The first was that M=L(r), so that the demand and supply of money alone determined the rate of interest. The second was that M=L(Y), so that only aggregate income determined the rate of interest. Of course, there are no such functions in Aggregate Income-rate of interest (Y,r) space. Keynes correctly pointed out that the missing equation in Pigou’s paper was Keynes’s Liquidity Preference Function M=L(Y,r). Only this function exists in (Y,r) space. A subsidiary point in Pigou’s 1937 paper was that Pigou also argued that the rate of interest was equal to a constant rate of time preference. This, of course, is consistent with the deployment of a Marshallian ceteris paribus assumption about constant money income. Kaldor apparently believed that this was the central issue involved and the more important. Now Keynes knew better,but he,as the referee, allowed Kaldor to proceed because Kaldor correctly deployed Keynes’s IS-LP(LM), although Kaldor believed that it was Hicks’s model, to prove decisively in a diagram relegated to a footnote near the end of the article, that money wage cuts could only work by shifting the LP(LM) curve, which Hicks had renamed the LL curve ,to the right, so that Mw ,money in terms of wage units, would increase Y and lower as LP (LM) shifted to the right. Pigou’s 1938 comment in a note, that “I have not been able to follow the reasoning of Mr. Keynes’s short note, which preceded Mr. Kaldor’s�?, demonstrates that Pigou, and Robertson, were still not able to break away from the Marshallian, partial equilibrium,ceteris paribis type of analysis that was worthless at the macro level. Pigou and Robertson could not deal with a function that had two independent variables. Pigou never mentioned Kaldor’s graphical summary in his 1938 reply because he could not understand what was being done in Keynes’s IS-LP(LM) model. Keynes used the 1937 Kaldor comment on the erroneous assumptions and analysis of Pigou,who was fully supported by D. Robertson (see letter from A. Robinson to Keynes, CWJMK, vol.14,p.239), to set up a test for the Pseudo Keynesians. Keynes offered them publications in the EJ if they would reply to Pigou’s 1938, March article by simply deploying Keynes’s LP function from p.199 of the GT to show that Pigou’s model was completely misspecified. The Pseudo Keynesian response was to reject Keynes’s extraordinarily favorable offer and attempt to sabotage the Keynesian revolution in order to advance their own false, petty, and opportunistic claims.
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